于滨：Thefaultlinesthatcouldshake

　　WhilemuchofAsiahasbeenoverwhelmedbytheyearendtsunami，theoutpouringofsympathyandassistancewilleventuallysoothethepainanddestruction。Whatthetsunamimaynotbeabletochange，however，isthemuchdeeperandstrongersocioeconomicstrategicundercurrentsthataregatheringmomentuminAsia。AstheyearoftheMonkeyin2004usheredintheRoosterin2005，theregionisbeingtornbytwodifferent，ifnotopposing，forces。Oneiseconomicdynamics，whichislargelynatural，integratingandmutuallybeneficial，andconducivetosocialcohesionandpoliticalstability。T。Thispursuitofsymbolicgoals，ironically，alsoisassociatedwithgreaterpoliticalmilitaryassertiveness。Asaresult，thespecterofthepastisagainhauntingtheglobe，astheregionapproachesthe60thanniversaryoftheendofWorldWarII。
　　Growthandstabilityin2004
　　Asiain2004hasbeenblessedbycontinuouseconomicgrowthandsociopoliticalstability。Partofthereasonisasteadyworldwideeconomicupturnof5sleadingeconomies（4。4forJapan，4。3fortheUnitedStates，2。2fortheEuropeanUnion）。Asdevelopingnationsareparticularlyimpressive，registeringanaverageriseof7。8，asagainst4。6forLatinAmerica，4。5forAfrica，and6。6fordevelopingeconomiesasawhole。
　　Regionalintegrationisalsoatwork。InlateNovember2004，asummitamong10countriesoftheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations（ASEAN）andChinayieldedanactionplantostepuptheirpoliticalconsultation，securitydialogues，andeconomiccooperation。AnASEANChinaFreeTradeArea（FTA）isalsointhemakingtointegrate2billionpeopleintoa2。4trillionFTAby2010，srichestFTAs，suchastheEUandtheNorthAmericanFreeTradeAgreement。
　　CsproactivediplomacyisonlythelatestroundofAsmultilateralism，whichwillalsopromptJapanandSouthKoreatoacceleratetheirownpaceofintegrationwithASEANinthecomingyears。AlreadytheASEAN3talks，whichbeganin1997betweenASEAN，Japan，China，andSouthKorea，haveresultedinthedeepeningandexpandingofrelationshipsforAsiannations。
　　TheabsenceoflargescaleterroristattacksinmajorAsiannations（suchisthecaseofMadrid，Spain，andBeslan，Russia，in2004）wasalsohelpful。Perhapsmorethaninanyotherpartsoftheworld，AsleadingreligionsincludingIslam，Buddhism，Hinduism，ShintoandJudaism。WiththeexceptionofCentralAsianandtheMideasternpartsoftheregion，civilizationcoexistenceandexchanges，，havebeenthemainstreaminAsia。AntiterrorremainspartofthevocabularyfortheAsianelite。Bynomeansisittheonly，northemostimportantitemontheiragenda。
　　LastifnottheleastisCssizzlingeconomy（9），whichundoubtedlycontributestoAshealthyperformance。AspopulationgoingthroughaquarterofacenturyofsustainedgrowthisnosmallmatterforAseconomicdynamics。AstheNo1manufacturerforshoes，cellphones，colorTVs，digitalcameras，bicycles，vitaminC，aspirin，andotherproductsfortheworldmarket，Csgrowthpotentialhasyettobefullytapped。Withapercapitagrossnationalproduct（GDP）barelyabove1，000for2004，MiddleKconsumed8spetroleum，10ofitselectricity，19aluminum，20copper，31coal，ssteel。
　　Cdevotiontosubstances
　　Wsendlessappetiteformarketandrawmaterialsdrivesregionalgrowthandintegration，lessnoticedisthefactthatCsrapideconomicmodernizationisachievedbydisregarding，atleastpartially，politicalsymbols。WhatC（blackorwhite）aslongasitcatchesmice（DengXswords）。Inpolicyterms，itmeanstofocusonthesubstanceofwhateverworks：socialism，capitalism，orboth。
　　Csexplosivegrowth，however，comesatasteepprice。Twentyfiveyearsintoitsprobusinessandeliteorientedeconomicreforms，Csmostegalitarianstateintotheleastegalitariannationintheworldironically，sinceitisstillnominallyundersocialistsymbolism。Tshistory，involvinghundredsofmillionsofpeopleatanytimeinthepastdecadeortwo。Asaresult，LatinAmericanizationmeaninghugeincomedisparityleadingtosociopoliticalinstabilityishauntingCspoliticalandintellectualelite。ThecurrentleadershipofPresidentHuJintaoandPremierWenJiabaoclearlyfavorsaproperbalancebetweenefficiency（production）andequality（redistribution）。
　　ItisunclearhowtheinfluxofWesterncommercialismandindividualismwillbebalancedbyarevivingConfucianismandaresidualsocialism。
　　CandAseconomicdynamism，however，maybeseriouslycomplicatedinthenextfewyearsbytwoongoingidentitychangesinEastAsia，asbothJapanandT，whichisdivisiveanddisorientatingathome，anddestabilizingandevendangerousabroad。
　　Jstate
　　Jofeconomicstagnationofthe1990s，aspiringtopoliticalmilitarypotency。MuchofthisefforthasfocusedoneithertrivializingoreradicatingArticle9oftheJapaneseConstitution，sothatJapanwouldbeabletosheditspacifistimage（imposedbytheAmericans）andtoprojectitsmilitarybeyonditsborders。Meanwhile，Jrhetoric，fashionedbyitsrightwingersandendorsedevenbysocialistsandcommunists：rhetorictoimposeeconomicsanctionsagainstNorthKorea（notsoeasy）；toendJsofficialdevelopmentassistance（ODA）toCtolaunchpreemptivestrikesagainstNorthK（ChinaandNorthKorea）DefenseO；torearmJapanevenwithnuclearweapons（seeAyakoDoi，UnforeseenConsequences：JsEmergingNuclearDebate，PacNetNewsletter，12，March13，2003，www。csis。orgpacforpac0312。htm）；andtoblameAsiannationsfortheirdispleasurewithPrimeMinisterJunichiroKsrepeatedvisitstothecontroversialYasukuniShrine，wheretheclassAwarcriminalsareenshrined。HthevisitshaveprovokedoutragefromChinaanddistressedtheJapanesebusinesscommunitythatseesthepotentialwaningofChinabusiness。
　　TheYasukunicase，whichisdefinedbyJissue，isparticularlythornyinJsrelationswithitsAsianneighbors。Astate，Japanhaseveryrighttochoosecollectiveamnesia：nottorememberwhathappenedbetween18941945，whenitfoughtallthreecontinentalpowersofChina，Russia，andtheUnitedStates，aswellascolonizedKoreaandTaiwan。Asians，however，mayforgive，butnotforgettheconsequencesofJ，eveniftheAmericansmaychoosetoforgetthenearperfectprecisionstrikeatPearlHdamage（only68civiliansdied），nottomentionJsdesperatebutinnovativeKamakazisuicidebombers，forerunnersoftheSeptember11，2001，terroristattacksagainsttheUnitedStates。TheunprecedentedascendanceofJapanesemilitarismwascappedin1945onlywiththecombinedforcesofallthreecontinentalpowers，plusnuclearweapons。
　　ThememoriesandperceptionsofJapanbyitsneighbors，however，maynotcountmuchthesedays，giventhefactthatJapanpossessesthesecondlargesteconomyandsecondlargestmilitaryspendingintheworld。ItisalmostimpossiblenowtoholdthecurrentgenerationofJapaneselegallyresponsibleforwhattheirpredecessorsdidtoAsiainthepastcentury，thankstowhatBruceC（exemptingtheEmperorandmostwartimeofficials）（usingnuclearweapons）bytheAmericans（Cumings，ParallaxVisions：MakingSenseofAmericanEastAsianRelationsattheEndoftheCentury，DukeUniversityPress，1999）。Incontrast，theGermanstateanditscompaniesarestillcompensatingvictimsoftheHolocaust。
　　EventheUSgovernmentagreed，aslateasDecember20，2004，tosettlealawsuitfiledbyagroupofelderlyHungarianJewsoverthelootingoftheirvaluablesbyAmericansoldiersduringWorldWarII（10，000foreachofthe30，000HungarianJewsandtheirsurvivors，accordingtoTheNewYorkTimes，December21，2004）。YetJapanasanationdoeshaveamoralresponsibility，ataminimum，stateitwasinthepast，beforetheEmpireoftheSpacifistnation。Atthepracticallevel，thegrowingnationalistbeatinJsforeignpolicygoesdirectlyagainstJsefforttobecomeapermanentmemberoftheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncil。
　　Inretrospect，Japan，nation，hasindeeddoneagreatservicetotherestoftheworldaswellastoitself。ItissimplynotintheinterestsofJmoldanditsopposite，evenatahalfcenturyinterlude。Arealnormalstatedoesnotonlyhavethecapabilityoftalkingandwagingwar，butalsoofbeingwillingandabletocompromiseandtokeepthepeace。
　　Tstate
　　Evenwiththelingering，ominousandthreateningNorthKoreannuclearcrisis，thesituationontheKoreanPeninsulahasyettobecomeabattlecryforallJapanesepoliticaleliteandsocialgroupstoundertakemilitaryaction，aswasthecaseinthelate19thcenturywheninterventioninKoreawasembracedbyalmostallsectorsoftheJapanesesociety，whethertheywerestatebuilders，dispossessedsamurai，orpopularrightsandfreedomactivists（DavidHowell，VisionsoftheFutureinMeijiJapan，inMerleGoldmanandAndrewGordon，eds，HistoricalPerspectivesonContemporaryEastAsia，HarvardUniversityPress，2000，p1145）。Partofthereasonisthefunctioning（andrecentnonfunctioning）ofthesixpartytalkssince2003。ThesearecomprisedofbothKoreas，China，Japan，RussiaandtheUnitedStates。Theoccasionaltalkshaveyettoyieldanysubstantiveresults，buthavesofarservedasadefactocrisismanagementdeviceandmultilateralsecurityinterfaceforallpartiesconcerned。
　　ThedelicatebalanceofpowerandnervesinEastAsia，however，maybeeasilyrupturedbyanotherongoingcaseofidentitychangeinEastAsia。Since2000，whentheproindependenceDemocraticProgressiveParty（DPP）inTaiwanwonthepresidentialelection，theislandhasundergoneanidentitychangefromcreepingtogallopingdesinification。LongsuppressedbytheauthoritarianNationalistPartyorKuomintang（KMT），whichfledtoTaiwanafteritsdefeatbythecommunistsonthemainland，theDPP，onceinpower，hasmadeTaiwanizationitsmission，withaselfimposedtightscheduleforconstitutionalrevisionin2006andformalstatehoodin2008。Meanwhile，sweepingculturalrevisionandchangestodeposeChineseelementsaregoingfullspeedaheadincrosscultural，educational，social，political，business，andevenmilitaryareas。AnythingChineseseemsevilandhastogoassoonaspossible。
　　InanagewhentherestofAsiaisseizingthemomenttoengageChina，TaiwanisperhapstheonlyoneinAsia，andeventheworld，thatisactivelyburningtheChinabridge。Asaresult，sownviewisproducingafatefuldrivetowarditsnominalstatehood，regardlessofthepostindependencemessandhowtolivewithanincreasinglypowerfulmainlandacrosstheTaiwanStrait。Betweensubstanceandsuperficiality，Taiwanisslidingtowardthelatter，sstabilityandprosperity。AllthisisbeingdoneinthenameofdemocratizingTaiwan。TheproindependencegoverningDPPextremistsontheisland，however，forgetthatanindependentTaiwanisunacceptablebyanyregimeonthemainland，beittraditional，communist，ordemocratic。
　　Emergingfaultlines
　　ItisstillpossibleforallpartiesinvolvedtoreversethistrendtowardthemilitarizationoftheTaiwanissuebeforeitreachesitsfreefallstage。Twogeostrategicissues，however，areoverthehorizonandmaynegativelyaffectthecurrentstrategiccalculusinAsia。
　　Obetweenmaritime（Japan，US，andTaiwan）andcontinentalpowers（China，Russia，andpossiblyIndiaandthetwoKoreas）。Theyear2004witnessedlargescalemilitaryexercisesbybothRussiaandtheUnitedStates。RSecurity2004exerciseinFebruarywasthelargestdrillsince1982andtheUSSummerPulse2004betweenJuneandAugustinvolved150，000troops，600warplanes，andmorethan50warships，includingsevenofatotal12aircraftcarriers。WhiletheWashingtonTokyoTaipeiaxis，formalorinformal，ishardening，theBeijingMoscowNewDelhiconnectionremainsatthelevelofbrainstorming。Nonetheless，RussiansandChinesearegettingreadytostagetheirlargesteverjointmilitaryexercisesin2005inCsManchuriaborderingKorea，possiblyinvolvingRslongrangestrategicbombersandnuclearsubmarines。
　　ThefaultlinesbetweenAsmaritimeandcontinentalpowersareyettobedetermined，smostpowerfulmilitaryeconomicentity（USJapan）forclosertieswiththeothermajorbutstillsecondclasspowers。Theregion，however，isfacingageopoliticalfactoflifethattwoofAsmajorpowers，ChinaandJapan，aresimultaneouslyontheriseattheonsetofthe21stcentury。Itisunprecedentedthatbeforethesecondhalfofthe19thcentury，JapanremainedaperipheralstateinaChinacenteredConfucianuniverse。AftertheMeijireformsuntilthemid20thcentury，theriseofJapanwasfirstandforemostattheexpenseofChina。
　　ThecurrentstateofaffairsisuniquealsobecauseoftheentirelyoppositedirectioninChinaandJsidentitytransformations。Ononehand，China，
　　aformerpoliticalmilitarystateoftheColdWar（theUSandSovietUnionweretwootherpoliticalmilitarystates），sfactoryofconsumerproducts。Ontheotherhand，Japan，atradingstateduringtheColdWar，isnowrapidlymovingintoapoliticalmilitarymoldandbeyond（topreemptionandmissiledefense）。WhateverthetrajectoryofChinaandJapan，bothhavebecomemorepowerfulandmorenationalistic（EugeneMatthews，JsNewNationalism，ForeignAffairs，NovemberDecember2003）。And，despitethebroadeninganddeepeningoftheireconomicandsocialintercourse，theirmutualperceptionsareinthenegativeterritory。
　　Itremainstobeseeniftheinterplayofgoeconomics，identitychanges，andgeostrategicmovesinAinthenewyear，andifthetwoAsianpowerswillbeabletocoexistandtoprolongthecurrentmovementofeconomicgrowthandpoliticalstabilityinAsia。Thealternative，however，willunleashatidalwaveofnationalistfeverandstatepowermuchlargerandmorepowerfulthanthetsunamithatdevastatedmanynationsaroundtheIndiaOcean。
　　《亚洲时报在线》〔AsiaTimesOnline〕，2005年1月7日首发。