于滨：美国的混蛋盟国

　　AsRogueAlly
　　Foryears，dealingwithPyongyanghasbeenthemostdifficultdiplomaticendeavorforBeijing。ThiswasthecaseevenbeforetheoutbreakoftheKoreaWarwhenKimIlSung，fatherofthecurrentNorthKoreanleaderKimJongIl，workedoutawarplanwithSovietleaderStalinandthensoldittoMao。ThedayaftertheNorthattackedtheSouth，PresidentTrumanorderedthe7thFleetbacktotheTaiwanStraitandhencetheMainlandlostTaiwan。Duringthethreeyearconflict，Chinaborethebruntofthefightingandsufferedhundredsofthousandsofcasualties。ThepostwarNorthKoreanofficialpropaganda，however，scarcelyacknowledgedCsrole。LastOctober，theDemocraticPeople’sRepublicofKorea（DPRK）testeditsnucleardevicedespiteChina’swarningandeffortstoresolvethenuclearissuepeacefully。Now，afteryearsofChina’shardworktohostmanyroundsofsixpartytalks，aNorthSouthsummitearlythismonthinPyongyangwentasfarastosuggestthatChinamaynotbeaparty“directlyconcerned”witha“permanentpeaceregime”onthepeninsula。
　　NowWashingtontastesasimilarbitterfruitwithitsquasiallyTaiwan。Indeed，thesummerof2007inTaiwanmaywellberememberednotasthehottestweatherwisebutthehottestpoliticallyastheislandshiftedintooverdrivetoachieveaseatintheUnitedNations。Thistime，TaiwandirectlydefiedWashington’swarningnottodoso。
　　BothDPRKandTaiwanaresmallalliestotheir“bigbrother。”Eachtries，eitherforinternalorexternalreasons，toassertitsowninterests：passionately，persistently，blindly，andevenattheexpenseofthoseofthe“bigbrother。”Theyexploitthedifferencesbetweenmajorpowers。Neithercaresmuchaboutthestabilityandsecurityofthesurroundingregions。Theyareboth，inthissense，rogueallies。
　　Balancingandhedgingactsarenotnew，andevennormal，amongnationstates。Overplayingsuchagameorallowingsuchagametobeoverplayedbyajuniorpartnerispotentiallydangerousforregionalandworldstability。
　　Thereare，however，somemajordifferencesbetweenthetworogueallies。First，NorthKoreastrivesforsubstance（survivalandsecurity），whileTaiwanisobsessedwithsuperficiality（selfidentityandselfrighteousness）。Secondly，NorthKoreaisapparentlyachievingitsgoalbyworking，albeitreluctantlybutcertainlyskillfully，throughthesixpartytalksinBeijing。Taiwan，however，isachievinglesssecurityandworserelationshipswithbothBeijingandWashington，thelatterbeingTaiwan’smainandperhapsonlymajorpowerprotector。Lastbutnotleast，PyongyangisatastrategicandhistoricaljunctureinimprovingrelationswithWashington。Taiwanisheadingintheoppositedirection。AlthoughTaiwanisstillAmerica’sdefactoallyinAsia，thechemistrybetweentheBushadministrationandChenShuibianisrapidlyheadingsouth。
　　SayNotoWashington
　　ChenShuibianhasscoredseveral“firsts”intherelentlessUNdrivethathasmarkedhislastyearasTaiwan’spresident。Forthefirsttime，Chen’sUNbidwasmadetwiceinJuly（July19andJuly27）andthenofficiallyinSeptemberduringtheannualUNsessionunderthenameTaiwan，not“RepublicofChina。”TheUNrejectedallthreebidsaccordingtoitslongstandingoneChinapolicy（the1971UNResolution2758）。Chen，however，vowstocontinuehishighlyprovocativeeffortuntiltheislandbecomesafullUNmember。
　　AfterthefailedUNbidinJuly，Chen’sDemocraticProgressiveParty（DPP）unveiledonAugust1normalcountryresolution，”TaiwanandChinaarenotunderthejurisdictionofeachother。Thetimingoftheresolution’sreleasewasalsoprovocative：thefirstdayofAugust，whichistheMainland’sarmedforcesday。InmidSeptember，halfamillionpeoplemarchedforTaiwan’sUNmembershipinTaiwanwhentheworldbodyhelditsannualmeetinginNewYorkCity。AreferendumonUNmembership，thefirstinthehistoryofTaiwan，isscheduledtobeheldnextMarch，inconjunctionwithTspresidentialelection。
　　Perhapsthemostsignificant“first”isChen’sopendefianceofWashington。PriortoTaiwan’slatestUNbid，theUnitedStatessentoutclearandstrongmessagesthroughbothpublicandprivatechannelsthatthatthereferendumwouldunnecessarilyraisetensionswithChina。AStateDepartmentstatementinJunewarnedthattheUnitedStates“opposesanyinitiativethatappearsdesignedtochangeTsstatusunilaterally。InlateAugust，theBushadministrationevenscaleddownChen’s“transit”throughU。S。territory（usuallyanovernightstopoverinamajorU。S。city）toafewhoursofrefuelinginAlaskaonhiswaytovisitsomeCentralAmericannations。
　　OnSeptember11，U。S。DeputyAssistantSecretaryThomasChristensenpubliclywarnedTaiwaninastrikinglycandidtone：backdownorfacetheconsequences。“Tssecurityisinextricablylinkedtotheavoidanceofneedlesslyprovocativebehavior，
　　”hetoldanaudiencethatincludedTaiwandefenseofficialsandlawmakers。“。。。letmebeperfectlyclear：。。。wedonotrecognizeTaiwanasanindependentstate，andwedonotaccepttheargumentthatprovocativeassertionsofTaiwanindependenceareinanywayconducivetomaintenanceofthestatusquo。”
　　Christensen’swarning，however，didnotseemtodeterChen。Twodayslater，theTaiwaneseleaderresponded，TheUnitedStateshasitsinterest，whilewehaveours。Sometimesthetwodonotcorrespondandsometimestheyevenclash。”
　　Washington’sdispleasurewasapparent。Chen’sUNbidcomesinthemidstofAmerica’s“Iraqfatigue”andmountingpressuretowithdrawfromIraq。AshowdownwithChinaovertheTaiwanissueisperhapsthelastthingtheBushadministrationwants。Ultimately，TaiwanischeatingWashington，aswellastherestoftheworldall，ironically，inthenameofdemocracy。Onewondersifademocracyshouldbeheldtoahigher，notlower，ethicalstandard！
　　Essentially，bothChenandtheDPPhavetossedawayChen’sMarch2000“fourNOs”pledgetotheUnitedStatesthatheasTaiwan’spresidentwouldnotdeclareindependence，notchangethenationalname，notpushforinclusionofsovereigntythemesintheconstitution，andnotpromoteareferendumtochangethestatusquoregardingindependenceandunification。Taiwan’scurrentmoveforUNrecognitionunderthenameTaiwanisperhapsthelastshoetodropsinceearly2006whenChenscrappedTaiwan’sNationalUnificationCouncilandNationalUnificationGuidelinestwosymbolicelementsoftheisland’slipservicetotheoneChinaposture。
　　Cheating，however，comeswithacost。Ultimately，someonewillpaysomepriceforthischeatingonthegrandscale。
　　IntheNameofDemocracy
　　ThepluralisticsettinginTaiwanguaranteesthattheisland’spoliticswillbecomplicated。Thecurrentraceforgreaterinternationalrecognitionisalsobeingfueledbyseveralotherfactors。OneistheDPP’sacceleratedefforttodesinifytheisland，whichdividespopulationandfuelshostilitywiththemainland。Itremainstobeseenhowthedilutionoftheisland’sChineseculturewillgainanytangibleresultsforTaiwan。Theislandmaychangeitsname，asMichaelJacksondidhisface。ButitcannotsailawayfromtheMainland。
　　AnotherfactoristhesuperchargedcampaignfortheMarch2008presidentialelection。CandidatesfrombothsidestherulingDPPanditsoppositionNationalistParty（KMT）areeithercommittedtoalteringthestatusquoacrosstheTaiwanStraitorcompellednottocommitpoliticalsuicidebyopenlyopposingsuchadangerousslidetowardashowdownwiththeMainland。
　　PerhapsnoissueotherthanthesocalledreferendumontheUNbidthestrangestsuchreferenduminthehistoryofdemocracydemonstratestheblindnessofTaiwan’spolitics。Forallstudentsandpractitionersofdemocracy，areferendumisaninstrumentinademocracytoresolvedisputesbetweenpoliticalforcesregardingsomecrucialissueswhenthenormalpoliticalprocessfailstoreachconsensus。TherulingDPPandotherTaiwanelites，however，areinalmostunanimousagreementregardingtheissueofTaiwan’sUNmembership。Therealpurposeofthereferendum，therefore，liessomewhereelse。ThischildishploypuzzledTaiwan’slongtimefriendRandySchriver，formerU。S。deputyassistantsecretaryofstateandnowafellowattheproTaiwanAmericanEnterpriseInstitute。WhywouldTaiwanwanttoholdanationalreferendumonanissuethathasalreadywonthesupportofmorethan70ofTspopulace，askedSchriverinearlyAugust。
　　EachpoliticalpartyinTaiwan，therefore，seemstobecarefullydesigningandorchestratingitsowngameplanfornextMarch’spresidentialelection。Bothsidesplugtheirearstooutsideinputs，betheyfromWashingtonorBeijing。Together，aninternalanddemocraticchemistryinTaiwanisdrivingthegeostrategicvehicleofregionalstabilitydownasteepslopetowardaresultthatisintheinterestsofnobody，includingtheTaiwanese。
　　TheDogthatDoesNotBark
　　WhileWashingtonisdoingthebadcop’sjobtorestrainitsallyfromgoingwild，itisBeijingthathasperhapsthebiggeststakeinthisUNpolitickingbetweenTaiwanandWashington。Sofar，Beijing’sreactiontotheTaiwanUNfeverhasbeenremarkablyreserved。Inhisspeechtothe17thCongressoftheChineseCommunistParty（CCP），SecretaryGeneralHuJintaodidnotevenmentionthewordreferendum。Instead，HucalledforconsultationtoendthestateofhostilityacrosstheTaiwanStraitandsigningapeaceaccordinordertomakeprogresstowardanewcrossstraitrelationshipofpeaceanddevelopment。ThedoorforamorepeacefulandmutuallybeneficialcompromiseontheTaiwanissueremainswideopen，despiteUNfeverontheisland。Itis，however，navetoperceivethisasasignthatChinadoesnotcare。NorshoulditbeinterpretedthattheMainlandisnotpreparedmilitarilyintheeventofcrisis。
　　AnindependentTaiwanisunacceptabletoanyregimeonthemainland，beittraditional，communist，ordemocratic。
　　Beijing’scurrentpostureisbasedatleastontwoconsiderations。First，anyheavyhandedresponsetoTaiwan’sUNdrivemaybecounterproductive，giventhepastexperience。Second，BeijingexpectsthatWashingtonwillbeabletorestrainTaiwan，similartowhatBeijinghasdoneinthesixpartytalksontheKoreannuclearissue。BeijingneverofficiallymakesthelinkagebetweentheKoreaandTaiwancases。Reciprocity，however，istheessenceofinterstaterelations。TheexperienceinmanagingtheKoreanissue，ledbyChina，offersbothhopeandcertainconceptualframeworkformanagingtheTaiwanissue，thoughthetwocasesareverydifferent。Thebottomlineisthatthereare，andshouldbe，limitstothefreedomofactionforone’sallies，officialordefacto。Regionalandworldstabilityshouldbeplacedabovealliancerelationsaswellasnarrownationalinterests。
　　ItisunclearifWashingtonwillbeabletomanagetheissue。Beijing’sabilitytosteerthesixpartytalkstowardapositivepathisbynomeansashorttermstrategy。Asearlyasthe1980s，China’sKoreapolicieshadevolvedtowardamoreevenhandedposturedespiteitsofficialalliancerelationswiththeDPRK。Sincethen，Chinahasmadeclearthatitopposesanydestabilizingactiononthepeninsula，whetheritcomesfromthesouthornorth。DespiteallofitsefforttocurbTaiwan’sUNfever，WashingtonstillhasalongwaytogotogettowhereChinaisontheKoreanissue。Taiwan’scurrentopendefiancetoWashingtonmaywellbethenaturaloutcomeofcontinuousU。S。armssalestoTaiwan，adirectviolationoftheAugust14communiquin1984signedwhenPresidentReaganvisitedChina。1
　　TherearestillmonthsbeforeTaiwan’spresidentialelectionwillputtheislandagainonpoliticaloverdrive。Washington’sabilityandsincerityinrestrainingTaiwanwillbeputtoaseveretest。Beforethatpoint，anythingcanhappen。Evenso，BeijingappreciatesalltheU。S。effortsconducivetopeaceandstabilityintheregionandgenuinelyhopesWashington’sendeavorwillleadtoawinwinwinsituationforallthreesides。
　　SuchexpectationsarenotjustfromaminorityofthepoliticaleliteinChina。InanacademicconferenceinSanFranciscoinmidJuly，aChinesescholarclaimed，loudandclear，thataharmoniousworldaccordingtoChinaneedsastrongandprosperousUnitedStates。Thestatementwasgreetedwiththelongestandloudestapplausefromthe100plusaudiencegatheredforthe20thannualmeetingoftheAssociationofChinesePoliticalStudies（ACPS），thelargestannualgatheringofChinesepoliticalscientistsaroundtheworld。
　　AsuccessfulsoftlandingoftheTaiwanissueinthenext10months（untilafterthe2008Olympics）willfurtherdeepenthevastreservoirofgoodwillamongthe1。3billionChinesepeopletowardAmericaandAmericanpeople。Theywould，perhapsmorethananyotherpeoplesintheworld，liketoseethecontinuityofthePaxAmericana。Thealternativeissimplyunthinkableintheeraofweaponsofmassdestruction，whichallowsverylittlemarginoferrorforpoliticalelitesonallsides。
　　Notes
　　1。TherehavebeenmanydifferentinterpretationoftheAugust17，1984communiqubetweenRonaldReaganandDeng。Theoriginalcommuniqureads，“theUnitedStatesGovernmentstatedthatitdidnotseektocarryoutalongtermpolicyofarmssalestoTthatitsarmssalestoTaiwanwouldnotexceed，eitherinqualitativeorinquantitativeterms，thelevelofthosesuppliedinrecentyearssincetheestablishmentofdiplomaticrelationsbetweentheUnitedStatesandCthatitintendedgraduallytoreduceitssaleofarmstoTaiwan，leadingoveraperiodoftime，toafinalresolution。”
　　美国《外交聚焦》〔ForeignPolicyInFocus〕，2007年11月1日首发。