于滨：使美国对世界更安全

　　MakingAmericasafefortheworld
　　ByYuBin
　　Aspecterishauntingtheworld，aspecterofadangerouslygrowinggapbetweentheUnitedSpromisestomakeAmericasaferononehand，andanincreasinglypoorer，moreunstableandmoredangerousworldontheother。
　　SixyearsaftertheBushDoctrineofpreemptionmadeitsdebut，Aremainsopenended（nowinthreeseparatetheatersofIraq，AfghanistanandPakistan）。AsthefinancialtsunamimadeintheUSisleavingnonationbehind，bothAmericaandtheworldarefarlesssecurethanbefore。
　　Meanwhile，Americaislosinginfluencebothamongitsfriendsandfoes。
　　Inaglobalizedworld，itisalmostimpossible，certainlyinconceivable，andperhapsevendangerousfortheUnitedStatestoachieveitsownsecuritywhilemuchoftherestoftheworldisinchaos。ThenextpresidentoftheUnitedStates，therefore，willhavetonarrow，ifnotclose，thissecurityinsecuritygap，notjustforthesakeofothers，butfortheUSsowninterests。
　　911andAmericanprotractedwar
　　Followingthe911terroristattacks，FrenchpresidentJacquesChiracdeclared，Today，weareallAmericans。RussianpresidentVladimirPutinwasthefirsttocallPresidentGeorgeWBushtopromisehissupport。ThiswasfollowedbythecallfromChinesepresidentJiangZemin。
　　Forawhile，Americahadagreatchancetoturntheworld’ssympathyandcooperationintorealpoliticalandstrategicassets。This，however，quicklyevaporatedinearly2003whentheBushadministrationrushedtowarwithIraq，evenifSaddamHusseinhadnothingtodowiththe911attacks。AfewmonthsaftertheIraqinvasion，evenBushreluctantlyadmittedthattherewasnoevidenceshowingSaddam’withalQaeda。Inretrospect，acombinationofmissionaryzeal，intelligencemanipulationandsolipsismtheinabilitytoevenconceiveofanotherwayoflookingattheworldproducedthefatefulcombinationofpreemptiveandmissionaryimpulsesthatpropelledtheUSintoIraqin2003。
　　WhileAmericanpoliticiansarecompetingtosupporttroops，therehasbeenaremarkableabsenceofanydiscussionoftheIraqicasualties。OutsidetheUS，theIraqigovernmentcounted100，000150，000IraqideathsbyNovember2006。TheirfindingwassupportedbytheNewEnglandJournalofMedicineinJanuary2008。A2006surveyofIraqihouseholdsintheBritishmedicaljournalLancet，however，suggestedthewarhadledto655，000IraqisdeathsbyJuly2006。InSeptember2007，asurveypublishedbyUnitedKingdombasedpollingagencyOpinionResearchBusinesssuggestedupto1。2millionpeoplemighthavediedbecauseoftheconflict。〔1〕Iraq，asaresult，hasbecomethebloodiestdemocratizingenterpriseeverinworldhistory。
　　WhileIraqisinruins，Afghanistanisdevastatedbeyondrecognition。BythetimetheAmericanmilitarywasshockandawingtheIraqis，Afghanistanhadalreadysuffered1。8millioncasualties，2。6millionrefugees，and10millionunexplodedlandmines。〔2〕SevenyearsaftertheTalibanwereremovedfrompower，thenationproducesonlytwoproducts：heroinandterrorists。NowtheTalibanaremakingacomebackandareabletostagecomplexandeffectiveoffensiveoperations，evennearthecapitalcityofKabul。InAugust，10Frenchparatrooperswerekilledbya100strongTalibanforcenearKabul。Twomonthslater，300Frenchparatroopershastilyretreatedfromthesameplacewhere10oftheircomradesdiedforfearofbeingtrappedbyamuchbiggerTalibanforce。InearlyOctober，BrigadierMarkCarletonSmith，theseniorBritishcommanderinAfghanistan，declaredthatthewarinAfghanistanisunwinnable。Meanwhile，theBritishgovernmentislookingforapoliticalsettlement。〔3〕
　　BothAfghanistanandIraqarenowdevastatedbyyearsofwarfare。ThemightyAmericanmilitary，too，isdangerouslyoverstretched。Financially，thepricetagfortheIraqiandAfghanwarsisfastapproachingUS1trillion，whilevictoryisstilloutofsight。Withoutacomprehensiveapproach，includingpoliticalreconciliation，diplomaticcompromiseandeconomicreconstruction，militarymeansaloneareoflimitedutility。Ataminimum，thecontinuouspresenceofforeigntroopsinthosenationsislikelytobreedmoregrievancesandantiWesternandantiAmericansentiments，whicharethebestrecruitingtoolsforterroristgroups。
　　Awarstilltobewon。。。
　　ThisgrimanddeterioratingprospectoftheB，however，doesnotseemtofactorintothecurrentpresidentialraceinAmerica。WhiletheBushadministrationisbargaininghardwiththeIraqigovernmenttoperpetuatetheUSmilitarypresenceinIraq，RepublicanSenatorJohnMcC。DemocraticSenatorObama，thoughshowingsounderjudgmentandpreferringafasterdrawdownofAmericanforcesinIraq，
　　hasyettoofferablueprintfortheIraqis。HispreoccupationistodivertAmericanforcesfromIraqtoAfghanistan，wheretheTalibanandalQaedaaremakingarealsurge。
　　DespitetheobviousdifferencesbetweenMcCainandO，bothprefertoexpandthewarintheAfghanistanPakistaniborderarea，aplaceeventheBritishstayedawayfromduringcolonialtimes。Thedifferencebetweenthemiswhethertotakeunilateralistmilitaryactionsintothetribalareas（Osposition）ortoworkwiththePakistanigovernmentforjointmilitaryaction（McCain）。Forbetterorworse，theBushadministrationistakingtheObamaapproachbydispatchingspecialunitsandunmannedPredatordronestothisarea。ThemountingciviliancasualtiesarenowdangerouslydestabilizingPakistan。
　　Onhiscampaigntrail，ObamahasrepeatedlyclaimedcreditforBush’snewstrategyinPakistan。HeinsiststhathisstrategyaimstokillOsamabinLaden，whoisbelievedtobehidinginthismountainousarea。Insodoing，ObamaisparadoxicallygettingveryclosetoBush’solutionintheearlydaysoftheAfghanwar，whenBushwantedtogetthesuperterrorist，。
　　ThereisnoquestionthatBinLadenisboththesymbolandmastermindoftheantiAmericanterrorism。HiscaptureremainsaworthygoalforWashington。Thesourcesofterrorism，however，arefarmorecomplicatedandextensivethantheonebulletsolutioncancopewith。Ethatarestilllooselyandspirituallyconnectedwithhim。
　　Forbothcandidates，willhavetobewonorsignificantgainsmustbeachieved。NeitherforthemomentseemswillingtoacceptthattheUSmayhavetolivewithacertainlevelofterrorism，astherestoftheworlddoes。Thatoptionistantamounttodefeat，whichissimplyunacceptable。
　　Fortyfouryearsago，approachtookAmericatoVietnamwhere60，000Americansandabout2millionVietnameseperished。Obama’sunilateralistrecipeforPakistan，therefore，isnaive，ifnotdangerous，foravolatileregionofSouthandCentralAscivilizationsIslam，Christianity，HinduismandConfucianismconvergeandbecamenuclearizedbytheendofthepastcentury。A，withallofitsgoodintentions，allowsverylittlemarginforerrorintheageofweaponsofmassdestruction。
　　Gahead？
　　Ifthecurrentraceandvotingruntheirowncourse，theDemocratswillgetthenextfouryears。TheirapproachingvictorywillhaveatleastbeencontributedtobythehugemistakesmadebytheBushadministration，whoseapprovalrateisnowdowntothe20s。Therestoftheworldhasalreadycastitsvotetothemoreliberal，intellectual，multilateralandcosmopolitanObama，accordingtoNewYorkTimescolumnistNicholasKristofinhisOctober23piece。
　　Suchanexpectationmaybepremature。
　　Afewyearsago，alongtimerealistinAmericanpolicyandacademialamentedthatAinquestofthemagic，ideologicalsubtletyandlongrangestrategy。。。ThatdrivesAatakeitorleaveitprescription，theoperationalequivalentofanultimatum。
　　ItwouldcertainlynotbesurprisingtohearsuchwordsabouttheBushadministrationafter911outsideAmerica，particularlyfromEurope。EvenMcCainisnowdesperatelydistancinghimselffromBush。Yet，strangethoughitmightseemtosome，thisassessmentofAmericanforeignpolicyisaboutpresidentBillCstime。TheauthorisHenryKissinger，whosebook，DoesAmericaNeedaForeignPolicy？waspublished95daysbefore911。ThebooktargetstheliberalinternationalistinterventionistpoliciesofClinton，manyofwhoseforeignanddefenseteamarenowadvisingObama。
　　KissingerarguesthatboththeleftandrightoftheAmericanforeignpolicyspectrumareheavilyinfluencedbytheJapproachtoforeignpolicy（pp2458）。WwithAsillsisAmericanhegemony。Result：boththeattitudeofmissionaryrectitudeoftheleftandtheoverplayofpoweroftherightleadtoastrangeoutcome。Thatis，smostpowerfulstatedoesnothaveaworkingforeignpolicy（pp1920，30）。
　　KissingertracedthesourcesofsuchaphenomenontoAsprevailingmoralisticworldview，ubiquitousAmericanexceptionalism（p27），aneducationalsystemthatputslittleemphasisonhistory（p30），（p240），
　　andaverageAindifferencetoforeignpolicyandinternationalaffairs（p18）。KissingerisparticularlycriticalaboutthepoorqualityoftheAmericanmedia，whicharetransformingforeignpolicyintoasubdivisionofpublicentertainment：
　　Theintensecompetitionforratingsproducesanobsessionwiththecrisisofthemoment，generallypresentedasamoralityplaybetweengoodandevilhavingaspecificoutcomeandrarelyintermsofthelongrangechallengesofhistory。Assoonastheflurryofexcitementhassubsided，themediamoveontonewsensations。（p27）
　　Kscallforagenuineforeignpolicywasnotoutofnowhere。A2002studybytheUSCongressionalResearchServiceshowsthattheaverageUSovertuseofmilitaryforceundertheClintonadministrationincreasedmorethanfivetimestoeightinstancesperyear，ascomparedto1。15peryearduringtheColdWar（194591），〔4〕accordingtoJohnGaddis（1989）。Thislongeststabilityofthecenturywasnotonlyrelativetothefirsthalfofthe20thcentury，butalsotothepostColdWardecadeswhenUSpowerisunchallenged，unbalancedandwithoutselfrestraint。
　　Thedisturbinglyignorant，arrogantandrecklessforeignpolicyunderClintonwasperhapsnotthefirstinstanceinUShistory。Inthisregard，GeorgeKennan，America’sprominentscholardiplomat，hadthistosayin1950aboutAmerica：
　　Isometimeswonderwhetherinthisrespectademocracyisnotuncomfortablysimilartooneofthoseprehistoricmonsterswithabodyaslongasthisroomandabrainthesizeofapin：heisslowtowrathinfact，but，oncehegraspsthis，helaysabouthimwithsuchblinddeterminationthathenotonlydestroyshisadversarybutlargelywreckshisnativehabitat。Youwonderwhetheritwouldnothavebeenwiserforhimtohavetakenalittlemoreinterestinwhatwasgoingonatanearlierdateandtohaveseenwhetherhecouldnothavepreventedsomeofthesesituationsfromarisinginsteadofproceedingfromanundiscriminatingindifferencetoaholywrathequallyundiscriminating。〔5〕
　　KspessimismaboutthepossibilityofAsmismanagingworldaffairscameatatimewhentheUSemergedfromWorldWarIIsmostpowerfulnationandwhenhewasincreasinglydismayedbythemoreideologicallydrivenpoliciesoftheUnitedStates。
　　BClintontimes，Anationreapswhatitsows，statedChalmersJohnsoninhisremarkablebook，Blowback，publishedayearbefore911。2600yearsago，Confuciustoldhisdisciplesnottodothingstoothersiftheydidnotwantotherstodothesamethingtothem。Indeed，longbeforeGeorgeWBushbecamepresident。。。Americahasbeenturninginonitselftoapointwhichisselfdestructive，wroteBritishjournalistJonathanPowerthreedaysafter911。Clintonismoftheyesteryears，therefore，maynotbeasharmlessasitappears。
　　Frommultilateralism，bilateralismtounilateralistandbacktowhat？
　　WhenAmericanscasttheirvotesnextweek，themantoliveintheWhiteHouseforthenextfouryearswillfindtheworldoutsidetheUnitedStatesmaybelesshospitabletoward，lessrespectingfor，sstrongestpower。ForthenewguardintheWhiteHouse，suchaprospectwillbe
　　discouraging，thoughnotwhollyunanticipated。Itisabeginning，however，tosearchforadifferentpathforthesecurityofAmericaandtheworld，awayfromnotonlytheBushadministration，butalsofromthelegaciesofthepast100yearswhentheUSfirsttooktheworldstage。
　　Inthepastcentury，Americahasexperimentedwithatleastthreedifferentapproachesforitsownsecurity：Wilsonianmultilateralism，ColdWarbilateralismandBsunilateralism。Ofthethree，onlyWscollectivesecuritywasdesignedtoofferequalsecuritytobothAmericaandotherpowers。Wsidealism，however，wasshortlived。OntheeveoftheUSentranceintoWorldWarI，presidentWoodrowWilsonvowedtomaketheworldsafefordemocracy。T，ironically，wasthebeginningofafouryearcarnage。Worse，ofthe20thcenturyforWesternliberalism：RussianBolshevikism，GermanNazism，JapanesemilitarismandChinesecommunism。Therestwashistory。
　　WashingtonreluctantlyacceptedtheColdWarbilateralsecuritylargelybecauseMoscowreachedmilitaryparitywiththeUS。Asownsecurity，therefore，requiredtherecognitionofthesecurityofitsstrategicandideologicalopponent。TheUS，however，，whichwastheMutuallyAssuredDestruction（MAD）。AssoonastheColdWarwasover，WashingtonlostnotimeinexpandingtheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationanddismantlingthefoundationsofarmscontroltreatieswithRussia。
　　Meanwhile，withoutthebalanceofWesterncommunism，bothliberalismandneoconservatismintheUSareworkingtoprojectAmericanpower，valueandinfluencearoundtheworldasifthereisnotomorrow。ThehallmarkoftheClintonDDtheoryperfectedbyAmericanpoliticalscience。
　　Thosewhoseethefullpictureofthedemocracypeacediscourseunderstandthepitfallsofoverplayingprinciplesofselfdetermination。Scholarsandhistorianshaverepeatedlyshownthatyoungdemocraciesareperhapsthemostaggressivepoliticalsystems。ThisincludestheWeimarRepublicandtheJapaneseTaishodemocracybeforeNazismandmilitarismconsumedthem。OneshouldaddthenewlydemocratizedGeorgiathatinitiatedtherecentconflictwithRussia。FareedZakaria，formermanagingeditorofForeignAffairs，warnedasearlyas1997thatthechallengeforthe21。〔6〕（Emphasisadded。）
　　ThereisperhapsnothingwrongwithdemocracyasapoliticalsystemthatevolvedfromWesternhistoryandculture。Itdeservesbothrespectandseriousconsiderationbyothers。Indiscriminantlyimposingdemocracyanywhereandanytime，however，amountstoadoctorprescribingViagratoallpatients，regardlessoftheirage，genderandsymptoms。Ultimately，sowninterests。
　　Meanwhile，thesearchforsecuritybytheUnitedStateshaslargelybecomeonewaytraffic，inwhichtheUSfrequentlyresortstotheunilateraluseofforcewithoutadequateconsiderationoftheotherside。
　　MakeAmericasafefortheworld
　　Inretrospect，onlythebilateralsecurityoftheColdW。Suchaprospect，however，almostdoesnotexistasneitherEuropenorChinaiswillingtobalancetheUS。ThetaskforthenewUSpresidentforasoundandeffectiveforeignpolicyliessquarelyinthehandsofthenewWhiteHouseresident，whomustleadapowerofglobalreachliketheUnitedStateswithglobalvisionandresponsibility，notjustthoseofAmerica。
　　WhenKissingerdeploredthelackofaforeignpolicyduringtheClintonadministration，heaskediftheUSwastoleadtheworldinsteadofturningitintoanempire。Kissingeraskedarightquestion，butnotenough。TherealquestionisnotwhethertheUSshouldleadtheworldornot，buthowtheUSwilllead。Indeed，afair，legitimateandeffectiveleadershipshouldemerge，orbeearned。Alternatively，itmaybeimposed，selfclaimed，butcannotberequested。
　　Foragenuineworldleader，thequestionishowtoworkwithothers，particularlythosenationsandpeopleswithdifferentcultural，historical，politicalandeconomicbackgrounds。SuchataskmaybeparticularlychallengingforAmericawhoseforeignpolicytoolboxcontainsonlytwopieces：isolationismandinterventionism。WhenAmericaisweak，whenAmericaisstrong，itsetsouttoshapetheworld。ThereissimplynosuchathingthattheUSwouldliveandworkwiththeexistingworld，whichisfullofgrayareas。ThenextAmericanpresidentmayhavetostepbeyondthisselfimposed，blackwhiteandalmostreligiouslyrigidideologicalconfine。
　　InhisspeechtotheUSDemocraticPartyconventioninlateAugust，ClintonstatedthattheUSthepowerofexample，。Asoundforeignpolicyshouldstartfromthehomefront，toreversethecurrenttrendstowardoverspendingconsumers，overdruggedpopulation，overarmedsociety，overcrowdedjailsandoverlobbiedpolitics。Asocietythatconsumes25sprisonerswithlessthan5spopulation，accordingtotheNewYorkTimesonApril23，2008，isnotamodelforothers。
　　AmericawillcertainlybemoreattractivetotherestoftheworldifRepublicanvicepresidentialcandidateSarahPsmillionsofhockeyandsoccermomsarematchedbymillionsofSATACTmoms。Paradoxically，SamuelHuntingtonofHarvardUniversity，themostprominentAmericanpoliticalscientist，condemnedAsintellectualelite，inhis2004bookWhoAreWe？andbeingnotpatriotic（p264）。SuchapermeatingantiintellectualismisperhapsthemainreasonforAsdeterioratingschoolsystemcomparedtomanynations，richorpoor。Already，amuchpoorerChinahashad30itscollegesturnout10timesmoreengineerseveryyearthantheirUSand300millionChinesearelearningforeignlanguages。
　　ForsuchasoftpowerasChina，merelyincreasingUSmilitaryspendingisnotonlyselfdefeating，butalsodangerous。AsnextpresidentneedstounderstandthatnobodycanbringdownthemightypowerfulUnitedStates，exceptAmericansthemselves。Theongoingfinancialcrisisisacaseinpoint。
　　Moreover，inaglobalizedworld，sintereststoseetheUSdecliningrapidly。Asnewleaders，therefore，mustcomeoutofthebesiegedmentalitytoengageandembracetheworld。
　　Diplomacy，however，istimeconsuming，difficultandsometimesfrustrating。Intheageofglobalizationandweaponsofmassdestruction，diplomacyisperhapstheonlywaytohandlesomeofthedifficultbilateral，regionalandglobalissues，particularlythosewithhighstakes，suchasthetwosixpartytalksonKoreanandIraniannuclearissues，theIsraeliPalestineconflict，andmorerecently，theconflictbetweenGeorgiaandRussiaoverSouthOssetia。
　　Towardaworldbeyondextremes
　　Almost20yearsagowhenWesterncommunismstartedtocrumble，FrancisFukuyamadeclaredthathistorywasover。〔7〕Helaterretractedthat。〔8〕Withtheworldwideandstillgrowingfinancialcrisis，historyisperhapsreallyending。Thistime，itistheend，orbankruptcy，ordemise，oftheextremetypesofWesternideologies：beitthecentralizedcommunismoritscounterpartofWesternmarketfundamentalism。
　　Despitetheirvastlydifferentideologicalunderpinnings，together，WesternCivilW，whichistheColdWar。
　　Indeed，the20thcentury，whichiswidelyclaimedtobetheAmericancentury，turnedouttobethebloodiestcenturyinworldhistory，duringwhichallformsofWesternideologiesbetheyliberalism，nationalism，Nazism，militarism，communism，statismpursuedtheirpuretypes。Itisfairtoarguethatthereisnosuchathingasclashesofcivilizations，buttheclashesofextremists，sexistence。
　　InthemidstofthecurrentunprecedentedcrisisofWesternmarketextremism，itistimefortheworldtopause，thinkandsearchforadifferentmodelofpoliticaleconomy。Itshouldbebeyondandawayfromexcessivegreed，excessiveconsumerism，excessivelaissezfaire，tomentionjustafew。Amajortaskofaworldleaderistosearchforaproperbalancebetweenthemarketandthestate，betweenindividualneedandsocietalinterests，betweenequalityandefficiency，betweenmaterialisticgrowthandculturalspiritualharmony，andbetweennurturingtheinnovativebusinessclassandprotectingothervulnerablesocialgroups。
　　Suchanapproachisalsocommonsense，aswasthechoicemadebythelittlegirlGoldilocks，whoprefersthingsnottoohot，nottoocold，nottoohard，nottoosoft，butjustright。Inthisregard，Europeistakingthelead。ComparedwithAmericanswhohavedismalgovernmentassistanceandrelativelylittlesaving，averageEuropeansinthecurrenteconomiccrisisarefarbetterprotectedbyfreehealthcareandlargelyfreeeducation。China，too，isreturningtoitstraditionalC（zhongyong）society。
　　ItistimeforthenewleadersinAmericatoshiftitsfocusawayfromBsobsessionwithterrorismandtorefocusonthebroaderwellbeingoftheworldandAmericans。Andtheworldiswaitingandwatching。
　　Notes
　　1。BBC，Iraqviolence，InFiguresAugust6，2008。
　　2。ChalmersJohnson，Blowback：TheCostsandConsequencesofAmericanEmpire（HenryHoltandCompany，LLC，2004），pxiv。
　　3。Atimes。com，October11，2008。
　　4。StevenHook，USForeignPolicy：TheParadoxofWorldPower（CQPress，2005），p296。
　　5。GeorgeKennan，AmericanDiplomacy，expandededition（TheUniversityofChicagoPress，1951），p66。
　　6。FareedZakaria，TheRiseofIlliberalDemocracy，ForeignAffairs，76（6）（Nov。Dec。1997），pp2243。
　　7。FrancisFukuyama，TheEndofHistory？TheNationalInterest，no16（Summer1989）。
　　8。FrancisFukuyama，AmericaattheCrossroads：Democracy，Power，andtheNeoconservativeLegacy（YaleUniversityPress，March20，2007）。
　　原载于《亚洲时报在线》〔AsiaTimesOnline〕，2008年10月29日