关注两会中的投资机会

　　Focus on the ＂two sessions＂ in the investment opportunities.
　　First, most of the major market indices rose in February.
　　1. In February (as of February 25, 2022), most of the major A-share indices rose, with the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 being the best performers, up 5.6% and 3.6%, respectively.
　　The GEM index was the only index that declined, accumulating a 1.8% decline.
　　2. In terms of sectors, most of them rose in February, with non-ferrous metals being the best performer, up 14.9% in total.
　　Coal, basic chemicals, petrochemicals and other industries also rose by more than 8%.
　　3. The household appliance industry fell the most, with a cumulative decline of 3.6%, and non-banking finance fell 2.6%.
　　Second, January social finance data significantly exceeded market expectations, ＂broad credit＂ on the ground.
　　1. January new social finance 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, significantly exceeded market expectations.
　　2. Social finance stock growth rate of 10.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month.
　　3. The higher-than-expected social financing data further confirmed the direction and effect of ＂credit easing＂.
　　4. It is expected that monetary policy will remain relatively loose in the future, while fiscal policy will also remain relatively active, and social finance data is expected to continue to rebound in the future.
　　Third, the market may have stronger performance around the ＂two sessions＂.
　　1. The National Committee of the Chinese People＂s Political Consultative Conference will open on March 4, the National People＂s Congress will open on March 5, the two sessions have been an important event for the capital market.
　　2. Where the economic goals set, macro policy direction, industrial policy, etc. will have a significant impact on the market interpretation.
　　3. Historically, the probability of the market rising after the two sessions is relatively high, especially in 2015 and 2019, when the demand for ＂stable growth＂ was high, the market rose significantly.
　　4. Considering the current economic pressure and policy direction, it is expected that the overall policy during the two sessions will be relatively friendly, and the market may have good performance in March.
　　Fourth, the impact of geopolitical risks on A-shares may not be long-lasting.
　　1. late February, Russia and Ukraine geopolitical conflict led to significant volatility in the A-share market, but the impact may not be long-lasting.
　　2. On the one hand, the war may not last long because of the disparity in power between Russia and Ukraine and the clear indication from NATO, led by the US, that it will not send troops into Ukraine.
　　3. On the other hand, the game between Russia, Europe, the United States and other countries or regions may exist for a long time, but the impact on the A-share market may not be direct and sustainable.
　　4. Thus, the short-term geopolitical risk for the A-share market risk appetite impact may not last.
　　Fifth, the direction of configuration, it is recommended to focus on the two main lines of stability: stable growth and consumption.
　　1. Stable growth direction.
　　1) In recent years, the ＂stable growth＂ policy is more of a hedge against the economic downturn, but it is difficult to get the economy back on the upside.
　　2) However, for the capital market, ＂stable growth＂ main line is still very worthy of attention.
　　3) Fixed asset investment growth rate upward range, ＂stable growth＂ related sectors outstanding performance.
　　4) Since 2010, five times in the fixed asset investment growth rate upward range, banks, real estate, building materials, home appliances, construction and other typical ＂stable growth＂ industries have good performance.
　　5) And in each upward range, there are ＂stable growth＂ related industries in the forefront of performance.
　　6) Can pay attention to: construction materials and other traditional infrastructure, as well as wind power and photovoltaic and other new infrastructure.
　　2. Benefit from the narrowing of the consumer inflation scissors consumer sector.
　　1) historically, since 2010, there are three inflation scissors narrowed significantly during the period, the consumer sector has good performance.
　　2) At the same time, the relative advantage of the consumer sector 22 years of performance may be more obvious.
　　3) Can focus on.
　　① High certainty of liquor and medicine.
　　② Benefit from the subsidy policy of home appliances and mass consumer goods.
　　③ Benefit from the epidemic receding offline consumer sectors, including airlines, airports, tourism and other industries.
　　第一，2月市场主要指数大多上涨。
　　1. 2月（截至2022年2月25日），A股主要指数大多上涨，中证1000和中证500表现最好，分别上涨5.6%和3.6%。
　　创业板指是唯一下跌的指数，累计下跌1.8%。
　　2. 行业方面，2月大部分行业有所上涨，其中有色金属表现最好，累计上涨14.9%。
　　煤炭、基础化工、石油石化等行业的涨幅也在8%以上。
　　3. 家电行业跌幅最大，累计下跌3.6%，非银金融累计下跌2.6%。
　　第二，1月份社融数据显著超出市场预期，＂宽信用＂落地。
　　1. 1月新增社融6.17万亿元，同比多增9842亿元，显著超出市场预期。
　　2. 社融存量增速10.5%，较上月回升0.2个百分点。
　　3. 超预期的社融数据进一步确认了＂宽信用＂的方向与效果。
　　4. 人们预计未来货币政策仍然将维持相对宽松，而财政政策也将保持相对积极，未来社融数据有望持续回暖。
　　第三，＂两会＂前后市场或将有更强表现。
　　1. 全国政协会议将在3月4日开幕，全国人大会议将在3月5日开幕，两会一直是资本市场关注的重要事件。
　　2. 其中经济目标设定、宏观政策方向、产业政策等等都会对行情演绎产生显著影响。
　　3. 从历史上看，两会之后市场上涨的概率也相对较高，特别是在＂稳增长＂诉求较高的2015和2019年，市场涨幅明显。
　　4. 考虑到当前的经济压力及政策方向，预计两会期间政策整体或也将相对友好，3月市场或将有不错表现。
　　第四，地缘政治风险对A股的影响或并不长久。
　　1. 2月末，俄罗斯和乌克兰地缘政治冲突导致A股市场出现显著波动，但影响或并不长久。
　　2. 一方面，俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的实力悬殊，而以美国为首的北约明确表示不会派兵进入乌克兰，因而战争持续时间或并不长。
　　3. 另外一方面，俄罗斯、欧洲、美国等国家或地区的博弈或将长期存在，但对于A股市场的影响或并不直接，也不可持续。
　　4. 因而，短期的地缘政治风险对于A股市场风险偏好的影响或并不会持续。
　　第五，配置方向上，建议关注以稳为主的两条主线：稳增长和消费。
　　1. 稳增长方向。
　　1）近年来，＂稳增长＂政策的发力更多是对冲经济的下行，但很难让经济重新上行。
　　2）然而对于资本市场而言，＂稳增长＂主线仍然非常值得关注。
　　3）固定资产投资增速上行区间，＂稳增长＂相关板块表现突出。
　　4）2010年以来的五次固定资产投资增速上行区间中，银行、地产、建材、家电、建筑等典型＂稳增长＂行业多有不错表现。
　　5）并且在每一次上行区间中，都有＂稳增长＂相关行业表现位居前列。
　　6）可以关注：建筑建材等传统基建，以及风电光伏等新型基建。
　　2. 受益于消费通胀剪刀差收窄的消费板块。
　　1）历史上来看，2010年以来共有三个通胀剪刀差明显收窄时期，期间消费板块多有不错表现。
　　2）同时，消费板块22年业绩的相对优势可能会更加明显。
　　3）可以关注：
　　① 高确定性的白酒与医药。
　　② 受益于补贴政策的家电以及大众消费品。
　　③ 受益于疫情消退的线下消费行业，包括航空、机场、旅游等行业。