龙腾网因太热而无法生存全球数百万人将面临无法忍受的温度

　　正文翻译
　　BY ELIZABETH ROYTE
　　作者：伊丽莎白·罗伊特
　　As a heatstroke victim’s internal temperature rises, the heart and lungs work ever harder to keep dilated vessels full. A point comes when the heart cannot keep up. Blood pressure drops, inducing dizziness, stumbling, and the slurring of speech. Salt levels decline and muscles cramp. Confused, even delirious, many victims don’t realize they need immediate help.
　　随着中暑患者体内温度的升高，为了保持血管的扩张，心脏和肺需要更加努力地工作。但是当心跳无法跟上的时候，就到了一个临界点。然后血压下降，这会导致头晕，踉跄和口齿不清。身体盐含量下降和肌肉抽筋。进入迷糊状态，甚至神志不清，许多受害者甚至不会意识到他们需要立即的救助。
　　France eventually attributed more than 15,000 deaths to the heat wave. Italy fared even worse, with nearly 20,000. Across the continent, more than 70,000 people—most of them poor, isolated, and elderly—lost their lives. Europe’s hottest summer in 500 years, scientists later determined, was clearly lixed to climate change. In Paris it had raised the risk of heat-related mortality that year by about 70 percent.
　　法国最终将超过1.5万人的死亡归咎于这场热浪。意大利的情况更糟，有近2万人因此死亡。而在整个非洲大陆，超过7万人失去了生命，其中大多数是贫穷、孤独的老人。科学家后来确定，这个欧洲500年来最热的夏天显然与气候变化有关。在巴黎，那一年与高温有关的死亡风险就增加了约70%。
　　Among the many climatic threats that scientists associate with global warming—stronger and more destructive hurricanes, drought, rising sea levels, longer fire seasons—an uptick in heat waves is the most intuitive and immediate. As greenhouse gases released by human activities continue to increase in the atmosphere, heat waves will become longer and inpidual days will become hotter. Globally, the past six years have been the warmest ever recorded.
　　在科学家们认定的与全球变暖有关的许多气候威胁包括更强、更具破坏性的飓风、干旱、海平面上升、更长的火灾季节和热浪袭击，其中热浪的增加是最直观、最直接的威胁。而且由于人类活动释放的温室气体在大气中持续增加，热浪还将变得更长，所以每一天将变得更热。在全球范围内，过去六年是有记录以来最热的六年。
　　In the southwestern United States, days with triple-digit temperatures are arriving weeks earlier than they did a century ago and lingering three weeks longer. And in Europe, the dreadful summer of 2003 has proved to be no mere statistical blip: Major heat waves have hit the continent five times since then, and 2019 brought all-time temperature records in six western European countries, including 114.8°F in France.
　　在美国西南部，气温达到三位数的日子比一个世纪前提前了几周，持续时间也延长了三周。在欧洲，2003年那个可怕的夏季已被证明不仅仅是统计上的短暂现象:自那以后，热浪已经五次袭击欧洲大陆，2019年，6个西欧国家的气温创下了历史最高纪录，其中法国的温度最高达到114.8华氏度。
　　The ultimate solution to global warming, of course, is to drastically reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. If we fail utterly to do that, by 2100 the heat-related death toll could rise above 100,000 a year in the U.S. Elsewhere the threat is far greater: In India, for example, the death toll could reach 1.5 million, according to recent research. And even if we do rein in emissions, the planet will continue to warm for decades. A juggernaut is in motion, and it will fundamentally change how most of the planet lives.
　　当然，全球变暖的最终解决方案是大幅减少温室气体的排放。如果我们放任其发展，到2100年，美国由高温导致的死亡人数可能会超过每年10万人。其他地方的威胁则还要大得多:例如，根据最近的研究，在印度，炎热导致的死亡人数可能会达到150万人。即使我们确实控制了排放，地球在未来几十年里仍将继续变暖。一个庞然大物正在运转，它将从根本上改变地球上大多数人的生活方式。
　　Extreme heat has pernicious effects even when it isn’t lethal. Researchers lix higher temperatures with a greater incidence of premature, underweight, and stillborn babies, and heat exhaustion affects mood, behavior, and mental health. Hotter weather makes people more violent, across income levels. It lowers children’s test scores and shrinks productivity.
　　即使不是致命的高温也会对人类生活产生有害影响。研究人员认为，较高的温度与早产、体重不足和死产婴儿等事件的高发率有关，而中暑会影响情绪、行为和心理健康。不论收入水平如何，天气越热，人们的暴力倾向就越大。高温还会降低孩子们的考试分数，降低人们的生产力。
　　Phoenix, Arizona, is the hottest city in the U.S., with more than 110 triple-digit days a year. Unsurprisingly, it also regularly records the most heat-related deaths. In 2020, Maricopa County logged an all-time-record 207, according to its medical examiner’s office, which occupies a two-story, desert-tone building in downtown Phoenix and is required by law to investigate all nonnatural deaths, which include those related to temperature.
　　亚利桑那州的凤凰城是美国最热的城市，这里每年有超过110天的时间温度上了三位数。不出所料，这里还定期记录与高温相关的死亡人数。根据马里科帕县法医办公室的数据，2020年马里科帕县记录的死亡人数达到了有史以来最高的207人。该办公室位于凤凰城市中心，占地两层，带有些沙漠色彩。根据法律规定，相关部门必须调查所有包括与温度有关的死亡在内的非自然死亡人数。
　　When a potentially heat-related death is reported, says Melanie Rouse, the office’s chief investigator, her staff first interviews anyone with recent knowledge of the decedent. Was she or he sweating profusely or not at all, complaining of headache or nausea? Doing yard work? Using alcohol or drugs, which interfere with thermoregulation? ＂What we’re trying to find out,＂ Rouse says, ＂is what led to this turn in their life. We’re trying to see if there are other compelling causes of death.＂
　　办公室的首席调查员Melanie Rouse说，当有人可能因为高温而死亡时，她的工作人员会首先采访所有了解亡者的人。询问她或他生前是满头大汗还是根本就没出汗？是否有抱怨头痛或恶心?是否之前做过庭院工作? 是否使用了会干扰体温调节的酒精或药物? Rouse 说，＂我们想知道的是究竟是什么导致了他们的死亡。我们正在努力寻找是否有其他令人信服的死因。＂
　　At the death scene, investigators measure the temperature of the body and the room. (The highest indoor temperature they’ve recorded was 145°F in 2017.) They extract vitreous fluid from the victim’s eyeball for chemical analysis. Cells break down quickly in high heat, explains Rouse, ＂but the globe of the eyeball is a protected space.＂ Chemists and physicians will analyze this fluid to determine if the decedent was dehydrated, had high blood sugar, or had decreased kidney function—all of which increase susceptibility to heat.
　　在死亡现场，调查人员会测量尸体和房间的温度。(2017年他们记录的最高室内温度是145华氏度。) 他们也会从受害者的眼球中提取玻璃体液体进行化学分析。细胞在高温下很快就会分解，Rouse解释说，＂但是眼球是一个受保护的空间。＂ 化学家和医生可以通过分析这些液体来确定死者是否经历过脱水、高血糖或肾功能下降，所有这些活动都增加了对热的敏感性。
　　Slightly more than half of Maricopa County’s heat-related deaths occur outdoors, mostly among the homeless. Many of the indoor deaths occur in mobile homes, whose poor insulation makes them hard to cool. Even in the richest of countries, inadequate housing contributes massively to heat exposure. In poorer countries, matters are far worse.
　　马里科帕县与高温有关的死亡人数中，略多于一半都是发生在户外，其中大部分是无家可归的人。许多室内死亡的则都发生在活动房屋中，这些房子由于隔热性能差，很难冷却。即使是在最富裕的国家，住房不足的问题也大大增加了热暴露。在较贫穷的国家，情况要糟糕得多。
　　In India, when the temperature surpasses 105°, government agencies advise people to stay inside and drink cool water. But the advice is not helpful to the tens of millions whose homes are hotter inside than out, who lack electricity to operate fans or misters—only 8 percent of Indian households have air-conditioning—or who don’t have homes at all.
　　在印度，当气温超过105°时，政府机构会建议人们呆在室内多喝凉水。但是这个建议对数千万房屋内部比外部更热，又没有电来运行风扇或喷雾机的家庭来说是没有借鉴意义的。在印度，只有8%的家庭有空调，更别说那些无家可归的人的境遇了。
　　Jehan’s husband pulls a rickshaw, but, undernourished and dehydrated, he frequently faints in the heat. Her sister Afsana and her three children cope by placing mats on the sidewalks, to rest or even sleep. ＂The passing cars create a bit of breeze,＂ Afsana says. But the sidewalks often don’t cool off until about 2 a.m.
　　Jehan的丈夫拉着一辆人力车，但由于营养不良和脱水，他经常在炎热中晕倒。Jehan的妹妹Afsana和她的三个孩子就在人行道上铺一个垫子来休息，甚至睡觉。Jehan说:＂过往的汽车经常会吹起阵阵微风（来降温）。＂但路面通常要到凌晨2点才能够凉快下来。
　　The bad news is that current air-conditioning technology exacts a steep price on the planet. In most systems a liquid refrigerant is pumped through an evaporation coil within the indoor part of an AC unit; as the liquid changes to gas inside the coil, it pulls heat and moisture from the air. Outside the building a compressor, a condenser, and a fan convert the gas back to a liquid, releasing the heat and the condensed water.
　　坏消息是，目前的空调技术让地球付出了高昂的代价。在大多数空调系统中，液体制冷剂通过空调室内部分的蒸发盘管泵送; 当液体在线圈内变成气体时，它会从空气中吸收热量和水分。同时，在建筑外面，空调外机的压缩机，冷凝器和风扇会将气体转化为液体，这个过程会释放热量和凝结水。
　　And third, air conditioners suck huge amounts of electricity—about 8.5 percent of total global consumption. Most of that energy is still produced by burning fossil fuels. In 2016 air-conditioning accounted for 1.25 billion tons of carbon dioxide emissions; by 2050, that number is expected to nearly double.
　　第三，空调耗电量巨大——约占全球总耗电量的8.5%。而大部分能源仍然是通过燃烧化石燃料产生的。2016年，空调使用而导致的二氧化碳排放量为12.5亿吨; 到2050年，这个数字预计将翻一番。
　　Clearly, new ideas are needed. To stimulate them, the Rocky Mountain Institute, a Colorado-based think tank, recently helped run an international competition. It challenged engineers to produce a room air conditioner that has one-fifth the climate impact of today’s standard products, uses at most one-fourth the energy, and is no more than twice as expensive as a current baseline model.
　　显然，我们需要新的技术。为了刺激技术革新，总部位于科罗拉多州的智库落基山研究所(Rocky Mountain Institute)最近帮助举办了一场国际竞赛。竞赛内容是让工程师们接受生产一种新型室内空调的挑战，这种空调需要对气候的影响减小为现在标准产品的五分之一，最多只能消耗现有空调四分之一的能源，而且还得不超过当前基准模型的两倍。
　　Some entries dispensed with liquid refrigerants and vapor compression in favor of promising new technologies that weren’t quite ready for prime time. One used solid-state refrigeration, in which pressure is cyclically applied to crystalline materials that switch readily from hot to cold; it’s likely to prove more suitable for spot applications, such as quickly cooling a soda can, than for chilling an entire room. Another entrant proposed rooftop panels coated with nanomaterials that reject solar heat, radiating it back out to space at an infrared wavelength that passes right through the atmosphere. That could, in principle, reduce a building’s heat gain by several degrees Fahrenheit, ＂but it isn’t a solution on its own,＂ says Rocky Mountain Institute senior fellow Iain Campbell. ＂It doesn’t work in humid conditions, and the panels have to face the sky.＂ Not so helpful, that is, for residents on the third floor of a 10-story building.
　　竞赛中出现的一些项目摒弃了传统的液态制冷剂和蒸汽压缩技术，转而采用一些目前还没有成熟但是前景很有潜力的技术。其中一种是固态制冷技术，这种技术对晶体材料施加循环压力，使其很容易从热转换到冷; 不过这种技术可能更适合现场应用，比如快速冷却一个易拉罐，但不适合用于冷却整个房间。另一名参赛者提议在屋顶面板上涂上纳米材料，这样可以阻挡太阳热量，顺便将其以直接穿过大气层的红外波长辐射回太空。原则上，这可以将建筑物的热量吸收降低几华氏度，＂但它本身并不是一个解决方案，＂落基山研究所高级研究员Iain Campbell说。＂因为这种方法不能在潮湿的环境下工作，而且电池板必须面对天空。＂但这对于住在一栋10层高建筑的第三楼的居民来说就没那么有用了。
　　The final four contestants all relied on conventional vapor compression. But they were seriously souped up, using new refrigerants with low or no greenhouse-warming potential and hyperefficient evaporator and condenser systems. The co-champions, designed by Team Daikin and Team Gree, cool their condensers with water instead of air to reduce their energy demand, and one sports solar panels to supply some of its electricity. They are expected to be on store shelves by 2025, at about twice the price of the baseline model. But their operating costs are so low, Campbell says, that the payback period will be just three years.
　　进入决赛的四名竞赛选手则都依赖传统的蒸汽压缩技术。但他们在此基础上革新，大大提高了效率。他们采用的是具有低或无温室效应潜力的新型制冷剂，高效的蒸发器和冷凝器系统。大金团队和格力团队的设计最终共同摘得冠军，他们用水而不是空气来冷却他们的冷凝器，这样做的优点是减少了空调运作的能源需求，他们还采用一个运动的太阳能电池板来提供部分电力。预计到2025年，它们的产品就将上市，其价格大约是基准型号的两倍。但他们的运营成本其实很低，Campbell表示上市三年就可以回收投资成本。
　　At Princeton University in New Jersey, Forrest Meggers, an architect and engineer, is developing another type of system that might prove enormously helpful in hot and humid environments. It didn’t meet the criteria for the Rocky Mountain Institute competition, though, because it doesn’t cool a room’s air: It cools only people—by absorbing the heat that radiates from their skin with wall-mounted panels of water-filled tubes.
　　在新泽西州的普林斯顿大学，建筑师兼工程师Forrest Meggers正在开发另一种类型的系统，这种系统可能被证明在炎热潮湿的环境中非常有用。不过，它没有达到落基山研究所竞赛的标准，因为它不能冷却房间里的空气，只能降低体温。这种系统通过在墙上安装装满水的管子面板吸收皮肤辐射出的热量来让人降温......