英国脱欧的不确定性被指责为初创企业数量急剧下降的原因

　　关于脱欧，英国整体经济环境已经显示出强烈的消极迹象。在2016年6月公投之前，英国是七国集团中增长最快的经济体之一。到2018年底，它是最慢的。英国脱欧公投后，英镑已跌至过去30年来的最低水平 - 过去几个月为以往的5％。贸易逆差出乎意料地扩大，英国贸易平衡达到123亿英镑，而分析师预测为113亿英镑（144亿美元）。由于目前的英镑疲软，以产品或服务为欧盟国家提供销售的企业利润将会极大地受影响。通货膨胀也正在缓慢增长，9月份消费者价格指数（CPI）上升至1％。英国现在开始看到原材料价格上涨的迹象了。部分原因是英镑下跌，而这只是一个时间问题，接踵而来的将是消费者价格上涨，从而对消费者信心造成连锁反应。
　　尽管英国将免除对欧盟90亿英镑的强制性净捐款，但分析师表示，离开欧盟的成本最终将超过英国获得的经济利益。
　　小企业联合会（FSB）调研显示退欧造成的经济不确定性使中小企业人员的信心逐步下降。
　　去年开始，英国新创企业数量急剧下降。2018年，与前一年相比，新创企业的数量大幅度地下降了12.8％，即近42,000 个企业。企业研究中心(ERC) 是由几所大学组成的研究机构，其年度英国本地经济报表显示，新创企业数量从上一年的325,900下降到今年的284,000。
　　最大跌幅之一 - 占15％的是北爱尔兰，虽然近年来经历了强劲的经济启动增长。如果英国在未经谈判达成协议的情况下离开欧盟，那么那里的公司将面临与爱尔兰的边境管制问题。自2013年以来，该地区的新创企业水平是全英国最低。
　　在英格兰，威尔特郡的新创企业是绝对数量下降幅度最大的 - 初创企业比2017年减少了45％. 威尔特郡位于英国的南部，伦敦的西面。
　　ERC研究人员表示，英国退欧的不确定性阻碍了新企业的创业，也削弱了成熟企业的增长信心和力度。 2016年至2017年间，初创企业数量其实增长了近10％。
　　根据国家统计局业务结构数据库的数据，ERC还发现英国的公司较少达到＂高增长＂状态, 即 三年内每年人数增加10％以上。高增长公司的数量从2012-2015年间的11,855下降至2015-2018期间的10,968。所有公司中高增长公司的比例从7.5％下降到6.2％。
　　同一时期生产力的下降不是很多。北爱尔兰拥有生产力增长最高的公司数量最多，其次是伦敦，剑桥和英格兰北部的大城市地区，包括曼彻斯特，利兹和谢菲尔德。城镇和农村地区落后。
　　最新的本地增长表分析显示了一些关于英国私营部门经济健康状况的明显警告信号。2016年公投后新企业数量出现绝对下降特别令人担忧。这些萌芽的企业家显然屏住呼吸等待英国脱欧的结果有些明确，但如果这样僵持下去，我们将看到充满活力的年轻公司创造的就业机会减少。对初创公司拉说，在最糟糕的情况下，英国退出欧盟可能意味着英国初创公司将无法再跨境或分支机构进入欧洲市场。如果英镑继续走弱并且经济增长继续不振，初创公司可能受到很大的打击。尤其是那些处于天使阶段或种子投资阶段。对那些依赖于主要从在英国市场开展业务的进出口企业将也会影响巨大。英国退欧最令人担心的是对以增长为导向的创新企业的影响，这些企业是高生产率，出口导向型和进口型企业。很难不得出这样确定的结论，英国退欧的不确定性导致基层经济跌跌撞撞。
　　资金问题
　　英国退欧对初创企业的影响可能首先时资金的来源上。在经济棘手时期，投资者不太可能支持新创的和未经验证的业务。
　　英国作为单一市场的时候吸引了许多外国投资者，因为他们不必面临关税的高成本障碍，并且很容易出口到其他欧盟国家。根据官方分析，脱欧对英国的外国直接投资流入产生负面影响。外国投资自2016年6月的公投以来已经下降了92％，英国人已经可以感受到融资水平的下降。据政府消息来源报道，在英国与欧盟分离后，外国直接投资可能会减少不少于22％。
　　外部融资需求持续下降，2018年只有36％的小型企业使用外部融资（2012年为44％）。银行贷款存量（1660亿英镑）与2017年（1650亿英镑）相似，但近年来实际持续下降。英国地区之间的融资方法和使用存在很大差异。例如，EIS和SEIS交易集中在伦敦和东南部（47％），超过一半（57％）的商业天使位于伦敦。股权交易主要集中在伦敦以及曼彻斯特和爱丁堡等科技集群地区。
　　市场的动荡对中小企业的贷款将受限制。 一些小企业的行为转变是显而易见的。有些人在英国脱欧之前推迟了长期投资和扩张决策，并减少了对外部融资的需求，而其他人似乎正在利用不同类型的外部融资来制定短期应急计划。
　　许多外国投资者采取观望态度，特别是如果在英国设立或扩大子公司业务涉及大量资本支出和长期合同。如果对进入欧洲市场的条件或在英国发布人员的能力存在不确定性，那么现在更难以证明资源的严重承诺是合理的，并且存在监管环境将开始的风险与欧盟其他国家适用的情况不同。
　　欧盟资金
　　英国一半的外国直接投资存量占1万亿英镑来自欧盟，而英国退欧后，较高的贸易成本以及增加的税费肯定会导致欧洲对英国的投资减弱。随着英国退出欧洲，企业也将无法获得直接来自欧盟成员国的资金。 例如，欧洲投资银行在英国经济中投资超过313亿欧元，其中17％为创新和小企业提供资金，主要是在科技和生命科学领域。欧洲投资基金是一个重要的资金来源。它支持大约27,700家中小企业。 为了抵消这种负面影响，英国财政大臣宣布他正试图扩大通过英国商业银行得到的风险投资的限额，并制定英国担保计划以支持重大项目。
　　人才雇佣
　　脱欧使英国企业和创业公司面临在近50年来最严重的劳动力危机。目前，有210万欧洲移民在英国工作。在英国技术工人短缺的工程，信息技术和建筑等行业，通过引进来自欧盟的拥有重要技能移民填补了空白。他们也是非熟练劳动力市场的主要贡献者。欧盟移民在就业方面也为医疗保健行业做出了重大贡献。如果这些欧盟技术工人离开英国，供应和需求之间将存在巨大差距。保留高学历和有才能的欧盟人员以及吸引这些人到英国工作的难度增加。2016年公投后，很明显地在英国境外寻找工作的人员数量在短短几天内显著增加。不幸的是，这种趋势多年来一直没有改变。员工现在对在爱尔兰工作更感兴趣，爱尔兰仍然是欧盟成员国或其他英语国家。
　　统计数据还显示，企业已经感到人才不足所产生的压力。根据英国特许人事与发展协会的统计，2016年第一季度至2018年第一季度，欧盟国民加入英国劳动力市场的比例下降了95％。低失业率以及对各种规模企业招聘的持续兴趣已经出现44％的雇主在2018年期间遇到招聘困难，另有34％的雇主难以留住员工。虽然脱欧可能会为非欧盟国家，欧盟以外的国家，如印度，中国和美国的人才敞开大门。但是我个人认为这些国家距离英国较远，所以英国的低级技术工作人员的缺乏不会改变太多。
　　对于初创企业来说，面临劳动力短缺的风险会很大，而起雇员的成本会增高。现在就有必要确定哪些员工可能因为身份而易受影响。帮助他们评估他们留在英国的机会，并申请公民身份或续签工作签证。对于无法替换的员工，初创公司应该开始准备确保他们的保留并考虑团队或个人的搬迁。
　　英国脱欧对劳动力市场和移民的影响将取决于英国和欧盟之间的分歧。如果英国想要进入单一市场，它将不得不接受欧盟国家的人们自由流入英国。
　　法规和条律问题
　　脱欧的一个广泛认可的积极方面是取消不断变化和扩充的欧盟法规。英国要为这些法规付出大约每两周数千万英镑的费用。许多人认为英国为这些条例付出的代价过于沉重。英国脱欧后可以将这些钱花在自己国家的增长上。另一方面，退出欧盟后，企业可以与全球其他国家进行自由贸易和谈判。投票退出欧盟可使英国不受限于欧盟法规是很多投支持票的人简单想法。但我个人认为英国自己的立法制度并不比欧盟简单，历史更悠久，机构繁琐，并且也在不断扩大，费用单算的话不必欧盟的低多少。英国脱欧。例如，一些中小企业正在欧盟27个国家开设办事处，这使他们更容易开拓新市场并获得新的人才库。由于制造商储存原材料和成品，脱欧的不确定性可能对某些企业有积极影响。
　　虽然脱欧减少某些繁文缛节，看似明显，这可能对某些中小企业提供增长机会。但是另一方面，在整个欧洲范围内活跃的公司可能不仅需要遵守欧盟法规，还需要遵守英国退欧后新制定的英国法规。这对那些公司会构成新的繁文缛节并带来新的成本。这就好像为了躲避红绿灯而选择绕远的路，其结果可能是并没有快。脱欧潜在的问题不可量化，欲知，还包括其他一系列复杂的税务问题，从跨境交易增值税到双重征税和关税等等。
　　英国国内对此危机的反应
　　英国投资者似乎并没有坐以待毙，而是开始反击。不同阶层，私有和政府部门都在采取措施对付由于英国脱欧而带来的对初创公司，孵化器，贸易形势的挑战。为确保小企业更好地选择投资渠道，英国政府已承诺建立英国共享繁荣基金（UKSPF）。 UKSPF旨在通过提高生产率来解决社会不平等问题，特别是在该国经济较不发达的地区。虽然英国中小企业今天受益于欧盟结构基金，但资金很难获得。因此，从理论上讲，中小企业将会发现通过UKSPF可能会更容易获得融资 （对这一点我也持保留意见）。
　　英国商业银行已采取措施应对挑战，包括1亿英镑的地区天使计划和推出在线金融中心。银行融资替代方案的增长仍在继续，尽管与2017年相比增长放缓。资产融资在2018年增长3％，而2017年为10％。点对点业务贷款增长18％，而2017 年是51％。
　　伦敦金融科技创新实验室于1月份宣布推出其最大的加速器计划，其中20家创业公司（来自300名申请者中）将参加为期12周的活动计划，同时获得28家金融机构的导师指导（mentorship）。
　　政府也可能采取一些措施来解决就业问题。例如，苏格兰议会代表英国投票留在欧盟的一部分，致力于为欧盟公民提供移民费，这些公民将在英国退欧后继续在苏格兰的公共部门工作。 虽然英国脱欧正在向欧盟劳动力市场倾斜，但另一方面，英国退欧将为非欧盟国家，欧盟以外的国家，如印度，中国和美国敞开大门。事实上，英国政府刚刚制定了一项新政策，允许外国学生从明年开始毕业之后可以在英国找工作获得2年签证。令人鼓舞的是，更多的外国学生正在将英国作为学习目的地。
　　从长远来看，雇主可能会从政府提出的英国脱欧后移民制度中获得一些喘息机会，该制度已在12月的白皮书中提出。这些建议包括为低技术移民引入12个月的工作签证，以及取消目前对高技术移民人数的限制，其中许多移民是潜在的企业家。
　　从财务角度来看，英国脱欧意味着英国不再需要向欧盟支付费用。英国2017年的贡献约为130亿英镑，它可以利用这笔钱来满足该国的需求，以确保其取得长远的成功和增长。这也可能意味着政府将更加欢迎并即将面向新兴创业公司。
　　英国一直是初创企业公司首选的环境。统计数据表明，情况仍然如此。许多基本面保持不变：英国继续吸引最广泛和最优秀的人才，涉及广泛的行业领域，科技储备和科研力量仍然很强，从制造业到服务业，它仍然是卓越的国际金融中心，监管环境宽松，律法严谨投资安全系数高，劳动力市场灵活，英语国家，公司税率据称是发达国家中最低的之一。 英镑的疲弱帮助了出口商和旅游业。为某些企业带来了商机。比如那些为国内经济服务而不依赖外国劳工的产业，未来不必进入单一市场。所以从长远角度英国的经济整体情况是否能安全渡过不定期，在危机中获得新生也未可知。
　　The Uncertainty created by Brexit is blamed for the sharp fall in number of new start-ups
　　Overall economic climate is showing strong sign of negativity. Prior to the June 2016 referendum, the UK was one of the fastest growing economies in the G7. By the end of 2018, it was the slowest. After the Brexit vote, the British pound has fallen to its lowest level in the last 30 years — 5% over the past couple of months. The trade deficit has unexpectedly widened, with Britain＂s trade balance reaching £12.3bn, compared to analysts＂ prediction of £11.3bn ($14.4bn).
　　Targeting EU countries with your products or services could drastically affect your profit due to the current weakness of sterling. Inflation is increasing slowly, with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rising to 1% in September. The UK is now starting to see raw material prices rise, partly as a result of the falling pound, and it is only a matter of time before this feed through to consumer prices with a likely resulting knock-on effect on consumer confidence.
　　Even though Britain would be free from the mandatory net contribution to the EU of £9bn, analysts say the cost of leaving the EU will eventually exceed these financial benefits for the UK.
　　The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) indicates confidence in the small business sector is declining.
　　The number of businesses created in the UK fell sharply after last year, with researchers blaming economic uncertainty caused by Brexit. In 2018 the number of new start-ups fell by 12.8 per cent, or almost 42,000, compared with the year before. The Enterprise Research Centre, a research institute formed by several universities, recorded a drop from 325,900 to 284,000 in its annual UK Local Growth Dashboard report, which looks at a range of metrics charting the growth of small to medium-sized enterprises.
　　One of the biggest drops — of 15 per cent — was in Northern Ireland, which had experienced strong start-up growth in recent years. Companies there will face the imposition of border controls with Ireland if the UK leaves the EU without a negotiated deal. The region had the lowest level of start-ups in the UK since 2013.
　　In England, Wiltshire saw the biggest absolute drop in new businesses — with 45 per cent fewer start-ups established than in 2017.
　　ERC researchers say that Brexit uncertainty deterred entrepreneurs from setting up companies, and that it had also blunted the growth ambitions of more established firms. Between 2016 and 2017 start-up numbers rose by almost 10 per cent.
　　Using data from the Business Structure Database of the Office for National Statistics, the ERC also found that fewer companies across the UK achieved ＂high growth＂ status — increasing their headcounts by more than 10 per cent each year for three years. The number of high-growth firms fell from 11,855 between 2012 and 2015 to 10,968 in the 2015-18 period. The proportion of high growth firms among all companies fell from 7.5 per cent to 6.2 per cent.
　　The proportion of UK firms that succeeded in increasing their productivity, measured by turnover increasing faster than headcount over a three-year period, slipped slightly to 8.3 per cent in 2015-18, from 8.4 per cent in 2014-17. Northern Ireland had the highest number of companies that increased their productivity, followed by London, Cambridge and large city-regions in the north of England including Manchester, Leeds and Sheffield. Towns and rural areas lagged.
　　It’s particularly worrying that we’re seeing an absolute decline in the number of new businesses being started in the wake of the 2016 referendum. ＂Budding entrepreneurs are clearly holding their breath waiting for some clarity about the outcome of Brexit, but if the trend continues, we’ll see fewer jobs created by dynamic young firms.
　　In a worst-case scenario, the UK＂s exit of the EU could mean that British start-ups will no longer be able to enter European markets on a cross-border or branch basis. Analysts have similar concerns for the businesses that depend on the items they export from EU companies that mainly do business on the British market. If sterling continues to weaken and the increase in the economy continues to fail its prognosis, it may significantly backfire on start-ups, especially if they are only in the angel or seed stages. The firms that seem most worried by Brexit are growth-oriented innovators, these are the high-productivity, export-oriented and import-oriented firms. It seems hard to avoid the conclusion that Brexit uncertainty is causing the grassroots economy to stutter.
　　Funding implications of Brexit
　　In addition to these very specific Brexit effects, general uncertainty and disruption could lead to a loss of consumer and business confidence. This, in turn, could have an impact on the availability of funds available for start-ups – in tricky economic times, investors may be less likely to back an untried business.
　　According to official analysis, leaving the EU would have a negative impact on FDI inflows in the UK and is likely to decrease by 22%. The UK being a part of the single market has attracted many foreign investors as they have not had to face high cost barriers from tariffs and could easily export to other EU countries. Brits can already feel the drop in the level of financing, as foreign investment has fallen 92% since the referendum in June 2016. As reported by governmental sources, FDI may well reduce by no less than 22%, after Britain porces the EU.
　　The demand for external finance has continued to fall, with just 36% of smaller businesses using external finance in 2018 (compared to 44% in 2012). Bank lending stock (£166bn) was similar to 2017 (£165bn) but this continues a decline in real terms over recent years.
　　There are big differences in the use of finance options between UK regions. EIS and SEIS deals, for example, are concentrated (47%) in London and the South East, and over half (57%) of business angels are located in London. Equity deals are concentrated in London and in tech clusters, such as Manchester and Edinburgh.
　　A shift in behaviour amongst some smaller businesses is evident. Some are delaying longer term investment and expansion decisions ahead of Brexit and reducing their demand for external finance, while others appear to be using external finance to put in place shorter term contingency plans.
　　Many foreign investors are adopting a wait-and-see attitude if setting up or expanding a subsidiary business in the UK involves significant capital expenditure and long-term contracts. A serious commitment of resources may be more difficult to justify for now if there is uncertainty for example about the terms of access to European markets, or the ability to post personnel in the UK, and there is a risk that the regulatory environment will start to perge from that applicable in the rest of the EU.
　　EU Funding
　　Half of the UK’s FDI stock accounting for £1 trillion comes from EU, and After Brexit, a higher trade cost, and increased fees and taxes would surely cause a weakening of European investment in Britain.
　　As the UK exits Europe, businesses will also lose access to the funds that come directly from EU membership. For example, the European Investment Bank, for example, has invested over €31.3bn in the UK economy of which 17 per cent funded innovation and smaller businesses.3 In the tech and life sciences sector, the European Investment Fund is a key source of finance, supporting 27,700 SMEs.
　　To counter this effect, the Chancellor announced that he is extending the limits of the venture capital investment programme delivered through the British Business Bank and creating a UK Guarantee Scheme to support major projects.
　　Labour Market and Employment
　　British businesses and start-ups are about to face a severe workforce crisis for the first time in almost 50 years. Currently there are 2.1 million European immigrants working in the UK. In industries such as engineering, IT, and construction, where there are shortages of skilled workers in the UK, immigrants from the European Union are filling the void by bringing in vital skills. They are also a major contributor to the unskilled labour market. EU immigrants also contribute substantially to the healthcare sector in terms of employment. If these EU workers leave the UK, there will be a huge gap between the demand for skilled workers and supply. Thus, the UK’s ability to recruit international talent could be at stake.
　　An increased difficulty to retain highly educated and talented people and to attract those people to work in the UK.＂ Following the referendum in 2016, noticed that the number of qualified personnel looking for a job outside Britain significantly increased in just a few days after the official announcement. Unfortunately, this trend has not changed over the years. Employees are now more interested in working in Ireland, which is still a member of the EU, or other English-speaking countries.
　　Statistics also show that businesses are already feeling a squeeze on talent. According to the Chartered Institute of Personnel & Development, there was a 95pc fall in EU nationals joining the UK workforce between the first quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2018. Low unemployment and a continued appetite for hiring across all sizes of business has seen 44pc of employers’ experience recruitment difficulties during 2018, with another 34pc struggling to retain staff. Although Brexit is damaging to EU labour market, Brexit on the other hand, will open doors to non-EU countries, those from outside the EU, such as India, China and America, but I believe these countries are far from the UK, the shortage of low skilled workers is not going to be changed by this.
　　Start-ups are at risk of facing a labour shortage and losing some immigrants that occupy key roles in the business. It＂s necessary to identify who among staff may be vulnerable due to being a resident of the EU but not the UK. Help them assess their chances of staying in Britain and applying for citizenship, if applicable, or renewed working visa. For employees who cannot be replaced, start-ups should begin preparing to ensure their retention and facilitate potential relocation of the team or the inpidual.
　　The implications Brexit will have on the labour market and migrations will be determined by negotiations between the UK and the EU following the pide. If the UK wants to have access to the single market, it will have to accept the free movement of people from EU countries into the UK.
　　Legal and Regulation issues
　　One possible positive aspect of Brexit is the elimination of the constantly evolving EU regulations, as they are costing the country tens of millions of pounds every couple of weeks. Many argued that it burdened the UK with the regulation and the cost (I would say the UK’s own legislative regime is no simpler than that of the EU and is constantly expanding). Voting to leave the EU will give the UK the option of not having to comply with EU regulations. As Britain had been a major contributor, it can spend all that money on its own growth.
　　In order to avoid the strains from Brexit, Brexit does present growth opportunities for SMEs. For example, some SMEs are opening offices in EU 27 countries, making it easier for them to tap new markets and access new talent pools. He also highlights that Brexit uncertainty is having a positive benefit on certain businesses due to manufacturers stockpiling both raw materials and finished goods.
　　On the other hand, business will be free to trade and negotiate with other countries globally, on its own terms in addition to the benefit of employment prospects from outside the EU. Far from reducing red-tape, companies that are active across European borders will potentially face the need to comply not only with EU regulations but in addition also with newly created UK domestic regulations following Brexit. Other potential problem areas include a range of tax questions, from VAT on cross-border transactions, to double taxation and customs duties, which will require careful consideration.
　　Fighting Back
　　UK investors and public sectors of different levels are fighting back against the perceived Brexit slump with start-ups, incubators and trade challenges.
　　The UK Government has committed to establishing a UK Shared Prosperity Fund (UKSPF). The UKSPF aims to tackle social inequality by raising productivity, particularly in the less economically advanced areas of the country. While UK SMEs benefit from EU Structural Funds today, the funds can be difficult to access. So, in theory, SMEs should find it easier to access finance through the UKSPF in future – just as soon as the Government publishes details of what it will look like.
　　The British Business Bank has introduced measures to address challenge including a £100m Regional Angels programme and the launch of an online Finance Hub.
　　The growth of alternatives to bank finance has continued, albeit at a slower pace compared to 2017. Asset finance grew 3% in 2018, compared to 10% in 2017 and peer-to-peer business lending by 18%, compared to 51% growth in 2017.
　　FinTech Innovation Lab in London announced in January the launch of its largest accelerator program, where 20 start-ups (out of 300 applicants) will participate in a 12-week program while receiving mentorship from 28 financial institutions.
　　Some initiatives may also be introduced by the government to tackle employment issues. For example, the Scottish Parliament, which represents a part of the UK that voted to stay in the EU, is dedicated to covering immigration fees for EU citizens who will continue work in the public sector of Scotland after Brexit.
　　Although Brexit is damaging to EU labour market, Brexit on the other hand, will open doors to non-EU countries, those from outside the EU, such as India, China and America. In fact, the UK government just launched a new policy to allow Foreign students to be able to obtain 2-year visa from next year (check). This is encouraging to see that more foreign students choose the UK as their destination to study.
　　Over the longer term, however, employers may get some respite from the Government’s proposed post-Brexit immigration system, which was set out in a White Paper in December. The proposals include the introduction of 12-month work visas for low-skilled immigrants and the scrapping of the current cap on the number of highly skilled migrants, many of them are potential entrepreneurs.
　　From a financial standpoint, Brexit means Britain no longer must pay the EU membership cost to the common budget. Considering the UK contributed somewhat about £13.0bn in 2017, it could use this money for the country＂s needs to ensure its far-reaching success and growth. It may also mean that the government will be more welcoming and forthcoming toward emerging start-ups.
　　In the positive aspects, Britain has always been a welcoming environment for start-ups and the statistics suggest that this continues to be the case. Many of the fundamentals remain unchanged:
　　Britain continues to attract the brightest and the best talent across a wide range of industry sectors, from manufacturing to services, it remains the international hub par excellence, the regulatory environment is benevolent and safe, the labour market flexible, English speaking, and the corporation tax rate one of the lowest in the developed world.
　　The weakness of Sterling has helped exporters and the tourism industry. There will therefore be industry sectors those serving the domestic economy without depending on foreign labour, and without the need necessarily to access the single market in future, in which now is as good a time as any to launch a new business.
　　Therefore, from a long-term perspective, if the UK economy can safely sail through this stormy stage and regain its vitality is still questionable.