美国网友问每个人都觉得中国将超过我们，这种说法的依据在哪里

　　中国的经济发展举世瞩目，因此现在全球都在关注着中国，讨论着中国。尤其是一些美国网友，他们在海外版知乎平台Quora上提出：在80年代，每个人都预测日本将＂超过＂我们(美国)。结果证明这不是真的。现在每个人似乎都认为中国将＂超过＂我们；他们会不会又错了?对此，美国的对冲基金经理和政治历史学者等各阶层人士也发表了详细的观点。
　　奥利格，前对冲基金量化研究员
　　Many good answers here but many are missing the most critical component of Japanese economic dominance here, which is the exchange rate of the Yen vs the Dollar.
　　这里有很多很好的答案，但是很多答案都忽略了日本经济主导地位的最关键的组成部分，那就是日元对美元的汇率。
　　Please go to Google and type ＂USDJPY historical chart＂. There you will see that the yen was extremely cheap all the way up to mid 1985, with 1 US dollar being able to buy 200–250 Japanese yen. With the Japanese yen being so cheap, they could sell their ＂better＂ cars at extremely competitive prices compared to American cars, thus ＂dominating＂ their industry.
　　如果你在谷歌输入＂美元日元历史图表＂。你会发现日元在1985年中期一直非常便宜，1美元可以买到200-250日元。由于日元如此便宜，他们可以以与美国汽车相比极具竞争力的价格出售＂更好＂的汽车，从而＂主导＂了他们的行业
　　On September 22, 1985 the US and Europe took the Japanese finance minister to the Plaza Hotel in New York City, effectively put a gun to his head and told him to intervene in the currency market to, exact words, ＂increase the competitiveness of US and European products.＂
　　1985年9月22日，美欧把日本财务大臣带到纽约广场酒店，用枪指着他的头，让他干预货币市场，确切地说，是为了＂提高美欧产品的竞争力＂。
　　Now look back at the USDJPY chart after that meeting. The Yen strengthens to where 1 dollar buys only 100–150 yen, effectively making Japanese products 2x as expensive. Suddenly the ＂better＂ Japanese cars were not so hot anymore and American cars became more competitive.
　　现在回头看看会议后美元兑日元的图表。日元走强，1美元只能买到100-150日元，这使得日本产品的价格翻了一番。突然间，＂更好的＂日本车不再那么受欢迎，而美国车变得更有竞争力。
　　Meanwhile in Japan, their GDP stopped growing, stock index stopped growing, their population stopped growing. The US however had high growth in GDP, stock and population over the same period.
　　与此同时，日本的GDP停止增长，股票指数停止增长，人口停止增长。然而，同期美国的GDP、股票和人口都在高速增长。
　　The 90’s internet and tech boom happened in the US and not Japan.
　　上世纪90年代的互联网和科技繁荣发生在美国，而不是日本。
　　The main point is that the United States stopped Japanese economic dominance by bullying Japan into submission. With disastrous results for the Japanese economy and country overall.
　　主要的一点是，美国通过迫使日本屈服来阻止日本的经济主导地位。这将给日本经济和整个国家带来灾难性的后果。
　　That being said let’s move on to China.
　　China learned many lessons from the Plaza Accord of 1985. The main one is that they will not allow the US to bully them into submission and let the same thing what happened to Japan happen to them. They are getting ready to fight to the end to maintain their economic dominance. They are increasing their military. They are building a network of allies. And they are doing a thousand other things that Japan could/would not do.
　　话虽如此，让我们看看中国。
　　中国从1985年的《广场协议》中吸取了许多教训。主要的一点是，他们不会允许美国威胁他们，让日本发生的事情发生在他们身上。他们准备战斗到最后，以保持他们的经济主导地位。他们正在增加军事力量。他们正在建立一个同盟网络。他们还做了上千件日本可以/不愿意做的事情。
　　In my opinion, China will be the next world economic superpower, period. The US will try to do the same thing to China as it did to Japan (economic pressure) and the same thing it did to the USSR (economic, military, diplomatic pressure) but it will fail to stop China from ＂overtaking＂ the US economy.
　　在我看来，中国将成为下一个世界经济超级大国。美国将试图对中国做它对日本做过的事情(经济压力)，对苏联做过的事情(经济、军事、外交压力)，但它将无法阻止中国＂超越＂美国经济。
　　How the overpampered and self proclaimed ＂leaders of the free world＂ Americans will react to getting pushed to the #2 spot is what will define geopolitics, and American politics and society in particular, for the rest of this century
　　对于被推到世界第二的位置上，那些娇生不熟、自诩为＂自由世界领袖＂的美国人会作何反应，将决定本世纪余下时间的地缘政治，尤其是美国政治和社会。
　　Political and History gadfly
　　The problem Japan had was twofold. It was too small, China being 10 times larger, and it made the same mistake the US made in its last recession. It let overleveraging of inflated real estate undermine the economics of the country. Today, Japan is still trying to recover. It pumps more funds into the economy, borrowing from it’s domestic retirement savings, desperately trying to refloat its economy. By doing so, it is buying time to recover. It may not work. What is happening is Japan is getting old and with her past and current culture of not allowing foreigners become long term residence, her population is on a decline.
　　日本面临的问题是双重的。它太小了，中国比它大10倍，而且它犯了美国在上次衰退中犯过的同样的错误。它让过度杠杆化膨胀的房地产破坏了国家的经济。如今，日本仍在努力复苏。它向经济注入更多资金，从国内退休储蓄中借款，拼命地试图重振经济。这样做是在为复苏争取时间。这可能行不通。现在的情况是，日本正在变老，由于她过去和现在的文化不允许外国人长期居住，她的人口正在下降。
　　＂.Japan remains definitively stuck, despite a long and aggressive experiment with ultralow rates. A quarter-century after its property bubble burst, a penny-pinching generation has come of age knowing only economic malaise, stagnant wages and deflation—a condition where prices fall instead of rise.＂ The enduring mystery of Japan＂s economy＂。
　　尽管日本进行了长期且激进的超低利率试验，但日本仍然陷入了困境。在房地产泡沫破灭四分之一世纪后，吝啬的一代已经长大成人，他们只知道经济不景气、工资停滞和通货紧缩——在这种情况下，价格会下跌而不是上涨。＂这就是日本经济的长期之谜。
　　China knows and studies the Japanese history that led to her success and now failure decline. China has copied Japan’s rise and is shift gears like Japan into technology. Having said that, times are changing because technology is already here and moving at a frightening clip. Most developed countries are using robotics and AI to improve their manufacturing. With this strategy, China hopes to beat the issue of falling labor resources caused by demographics. China is also more open to the outside world. The US complains about restrictions to China, but all developing countries try to protect their nascent industries, especially those that the feel are in the national interest. Do you see restrictions on Walmart, McDonalds, or Pizza Hut? There are restrictions on the auto, infrastructure, and financial areas of the economy, but China promised to open China up more. As that happens, it will accelerate China’s growth into the future with further FDI from a broad spectrum of foreign countries. That, and the ability of foreigners being able to get permanent residency in China broadens China’s ability to integrate more smoothly into the world. It also ties other countries into the economics of China. Things like the BRI will also broaden her soft power as China rises. Japan never attempted to develop a world infrastructure base. Her international ventures were limited to factories abroad where it made economic sense because of tariffs and economics.
　　中国发现并研究了日本成功和导致她失败的历史。中国已经借鉴了日本的崛起，并正在像日本一样转向技术发展。话虽如此，时代在变化，因为技术革命已经出现，而且正在以惊人的速度发展。大多数发达国家正在使用机器人和人工智能来升级他们的制造业。通过这一战略，中国希望能够解决人口结构造成的劳动力资源减少的问题。中国对外也更加开放。美国抱怨中国对某些市场的限制，但所有发展中国家都试图保护自己的新兴产业，尤其是那些感觉符合国家利益的产业。你看到沃尔玛、麦当劳或必胜客受到限制了吗?汽车、基础设施和金融等经济领域都有限制，但中国承诺，将进一步开放。这样一来，它将加速中国未来的增长，带来更多来自广泛外国的资本。这一点，以及外国人能够在中国获得永久居留权的能力，扩大了中国更顺利地融入世界的能力。它还将其他国家与中国的经济联系起来。随着中国的崛起，＂一带一路＂等项目也将扩大她的软实力。日本从未试图发展一个世界基础设施基地。她的国际投资仅限于国外的工厂，因为关税和经济因素，这些工厂在经济上是有意义的。
　　China also knows that STEM is key to technology. China graduates 8 times more STEM university students than the US. China is creating a new university or a foreign/China campus every week. China knows education is her future.
　　中国也知道STEM是技术的关键。中国的STEM大学毕业生比美国多8倍。中国每周都在创建一所新的大学或一个外国/中国的校园。中国知道教育是她的未来。
　　China also is structured so she can plan long term and with focus, something Japan tried, but it didn’t bear as much structural fruit as we see with China. You see China more focused and has the ability to look long term at solutions to her rise. Even the US can’t do this well so, in the long run, China will beat the US in the economic race. That is exactly what Trump and others fear. The attack on ZTE, the trade war, the demand for China to end her subsidies on research (Made in China 2025), her calls to limit Chinese STEM students studying in the US, are all signs that the US sees as a threat to her world dominance. We are losing our leadership by not competing.
　　中国也是从结构性上来制定长期的计划和重点发展领域，这是日本尝试过的，但它没有像我们在中国看到的那样取得那么多结构性的成果。你会看到中国更加专注，并且有能力为她的崛起寻找长期的解决方案。即使是美国也做不好。因此，从长远来看，中国将在经济竞赛中击败美国。这正是特朗普和其他人所担心的。对中兴的攻击、贸易战、要求中国停止对技术研究领域的补贴(《中国制造2025》)、她呼吁限制中国STEM学生在美国学习，都表明美国将其世界主导地位视为威胁。我们正因为不竞争而失去我们的领导地位。
　　If war doesn’t preclude this rise, China is on her way to be dominant in the next industrial revolution, it is the technology revolution. China plans to be the top dog. Today, the US is top dog, but we are whittling away our leadership because our leaders are taking us back to old technology and reduced focus on education for the masses. We seem to be aiming at elitism among the rich and abandoning our middle class. The vision that we see today, is almost polar opposite of China.
　　如果战争不能阻止这种崛起，那么中国将在下一次工业革命中占据主导地位，那就是技术革命。中国计划成为领头羊。今天，美国是领头羊，但我们正在削弱我们的领导地位，因为我们的领导人把我们带回旧技术，减少对大众教育的关注。我们似乎是在瞄准富人中的精英主义，而抛弃我们的中产阶级。我们今天看到的愿景，几乎与中国截然相反。
　　＂What is Made in China 2025? Made in China 2025 is a blueprint for Beijing＂s plan to transform the country into a hi-tech powerhouse that dominates advanced industries like robotics, advanced information technology, aviation, and new energy vehicles. The ambition makes sense within the context of China’s development trajectory: countries typically aim to transition away from labor-intensive industries and climb the value-added chain as wages rise, lest they fall into the so-called ＂middle-income trap.＂ Chinese policymakers have diligently studied the German concept ＂Industry 4.0,＂ which shows how advanced technology like wireless sensors and robotics, when combined with the internet, can yield significant gains in productivity, efficiency, and precision.＂ Why Does Everyone Hate Made in China 2025?
　　＂什么是中国制造2025?＂《中国制造2025》是北京计划将中国转变为高科技强国的蓝图，主导机器人、先进信息技术、航空和新能源汽车等先进产业。从中国的发展轨迹来看，这一雄心是有道理的:随着工资的上涨，各国通常都希望摆脱劳动密集型产业，向附加值链的高端转移，以免陷入所谓的＂中等收入陷阱＂。中国的政策制定者一直在努力研究德国的＂工业4.0＂概念，该概念表明，当无线传感器和机器人等先进技术与互联网相结合时，可以在生产率、效率和精度方面获得显著提高。＂为什么每个人都讨厌中国制造2025?