【已领】Here’sthebestwaytoguesscor

　　标题：Here’sthebestwaytoguesscorrectlyonamultiplechoicetest
　　source：qz丨JustinJCouchman
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　　Often，you’llhearpeoplesaythatyoushould“trustyourinstincts”whenmakingdecisions。Butarefirstinstinctsalwaysthebest？
　　Psychologicalresearchhasshownmanytimesthatno，theyareoftennobetterandinmanycasesworsethanarevisionorchange。Despiteenormouspopularbeliefthatfirstinstinctsarespecial，dozensofexperimentshavefoundthattheyarenot。
　　Whilethatmaybeausefulfacttobringupinanacademicdiscussion，anyonewhohasevermadeadecisioninreallifewillundoubtedlyreply：ButIremembertimeswhenImadeacorrectchoice，thenchangedmymindandwaswrong。
　　Thishappensfortworeasons：First，humansnaturallyhavesomethingcalledanendowmentbias，wherewefeelstronglyattachedtothingswealreadyhave（ourfirstinstinct，inthiscase）。
　　Often，you’llhearpeoplesaythatyoushould“trustyourinstincts”whenmakingdecisions。Butthisisn’tnecessarilytrue。Wedon’twanttogiveitup，andwefeelespeciallybadwhenwegiveitupanditturnsoutlatertobecorrect。Weremembertheseinstancesvividlyandthustheyseemtobeverycommon，eventhoughallresearchshowsthattheyarelesscommon。
　　Thesecondreasonismoreobvious：sometimesfirstinstinctsactuallyarecorrect。Theproblemisfiguringoutwhentotrustyourselfandwhentochangecourse。
　　Thesolutionmayliewithintherealmof“metacognition，”theabilityto“thinkaboutthinking”andusethosethoughtstomonitorandcontrolbehavior。
　　Ioriginallybeganexploring“metacognition”inrhesusmonkeys。Theywouldbegivenvariousquestions，someeasyandsomequitedifficult，andhadtoeitheranswerorreportthattheydidnotknow。Iwasamazedattheirrobustabilitytolookintotheirownmindsand“knowwhentheydidnotknow”therightanswer。Theywereabletoaccuratelyjudgewhethertheywouldgetthequestioncorrectorincorrect。
　　Iwasequallyamazedthatmy（human）undergraduatestudentssometimesseemedtolacktheability。Tsomewouldsignificantlyoverestimatetheirperformance，whileothersunderestimatedit。Theywouldalsobelievetheirfirstinstinctswerespecial，evenwhentheirownbehaviorssuccessfullyrevisinganswersshowedotherwise。
　　Surelymystudentsknewhowwelltheyperformedoneachquestion，andcouldthusfigureouthowwellthey’ddoneontheexam，right？Recently，mycolleaguesandItestedthisbystudyingstudents’metacognitionwhiletheyweretakingexams。
　　Theexperiment
　　Weaskedthestudentstotracktheirconfidenceoneachresponsetoarealmultiplechoicepsychologyexam，markingiteithera“guess”or“known”toindicatehowsuretheywereabouttheiroriginalanswer。Theyalsomarkedwhetherornottheyrevisedthatoriginalresponse。
　　Moreoftenthannot，thestudents’revisionschangesfromafirstinstincttoanewchoiceresultedinacorrectanswer。Andonquestionsthatcausedthemostuncertainty，stickingwithaninitialresponsewasabadidea：theywerewrongmorethanhalfthetime。
　　Their“metacognition，”intheformofconfidenceratingsforeachquestion，wasanexcellentpredictorofwhethertheymadethecorrectdecisionandthuswhetherornottheyshouldchangetheirresponse。Inotherwords，theywereabletotell，inthemoment，whetherornottheywouldgetthequestioncorrect。Andbecausetheywrotedownthoseaccuratejudgments，theycouldusethemlaterwhendecidingtochangetheiranswerornot。
　　Moreoftenthannot，thestudents’revisionschangesfromafirstinstincttoanewchoiceresultedinacorrectanswer。Inasecondexperiment，welookedatstickingwithoriginalanswers。Againusingmetacognitiveconfidenceratings，thistimeonaonetofivescale，studentswereabletoidentifythequestionsthattheyweremostlylikelytogetcorrectorincorrect。
　　Usingthoseratingsasaguide，wefoundthatwhentheychosetostickwithanoriginalinstincttheywerecorrectmoreoftenthannot。Thus，bothrevisionsandfirstinstinctswerecorrectmostofthetime。
　　Trackingfeelingsofconfidence
　　Onthesurface，thatmightseemlikeacontradiction。Anditwouldbe，iftheonlytoolsthestudentshadintheirarsenalwere“alwaystrustyourinstincts”or“alwayschangeyourmind。”
　　Butwegavethemaslightlymoresensitivetool，awrittendownrecordoftheirmetacognitiveconfidence，whichallowedthemtochoosewhentoreviseandwhentostick。Everyonefeelstheirlevelofconfidencewhentheymakeadecision，buttheproblemisthatwequicklyforgetthisinformationwhenwemoveontothenextdecision。
　　Becausetheyratedtheirconfidenceforeachquestiononpaper，theycouldusethoseratingsinsteadof（notoriouslyfaulty）memories。Usingthistool，theymademoreinformedchoicesthathelpedthemperformbetter。
　　Thekeytoknowingwhentostickwithyourfirstinstinctistotrackfeelingsofconfidenceatthemomentyoumakethedecision。Butwhytakethetimetorecordconfidencelevelsforeachindividualquestion？Iftheyknowhowtheyperformedoneachquestion，don’ttheyknowhowwelltheydidattheendoftheexam？
　　Itturnsout，no。
　　Despitebeingexcellentatpredictingtheirperformanceoneachquestionduringtheexam，whenweaskedaftertheexam，studentswereverybadatjudginghowwellthey’ddone。
　　I’llgiveyoujustonedramaticanddisturbingexample。Weaskedthem，attheendofthefirststudyImentionedabove，whethertheythoughtarevisedchoicewasmorelikelytobecorrectthanafirstinstinct。
　　Despitethefactthattheiractualchoicesandratings，momentsearlier，clearlyshowedthatrevisionswerebetter，theoverwhelmingmajorityofstudentsfalselybelievedthattheiroriginalchoicewouldbethebest。Thatisthedramaticpart。
　　Thedisturbingpartisthatanevenlargermajorityreportedthataprofessororteacherapparentlyunawareofthehugebodyofliteraturetothecontraryhadspecificallytoldthemthatfirstchoicesweremostlylikelytobecorrect。
　　Thus，thekeytoknowingwhentostickwithyourfirstinstinctandwhentochangeyourmindistotrackfeelingsofconfidenceduringthemomentyoumakethedecision。Duringcollegeexams，bothrevisingandstickingwithoriginalanswershadthepotentialtoresultinmorecorrectthanincorrectanswers。
　　Onlytheselftrackingofconfidencelevelspredictedwheneachwasmoreappropriate。Byusingthatsimpleformofmetacognition，studentscouldbetteridentifywhichquestionstoreviseandwhichwerebetterleftalone。
　　Makinginformeddecisions
　　Ofcourse，thispracticeoftrackingfeelingsisusefulformorethanjusttesttaking。Memoryisnotoriouslyunreliable，andwearesubjecttonumerousfallaciesandbiases。
　　Thisleadstoproblemsinalmosteveryareaofdecisionmaking。Mostoftheseproblemsstemfromthefactthatourbeliefsaboutourselvesandourpersonalhistoriesareusuallyformedlongbeforeorafteradecision，not“inthemoment。”
　　Ourbeliefsaboutourselvesandourpersonalhistoriesareusuallyformedlongbeforeorafteradecision。Uponreflection，thingsoftenseemmuchdifferentthantheyactuallywere。
　　Trackinghowyoufeelwhileinitiallymakingadecisioncanprovidevaluableinformationlater，canhelpyoumakemoreinformedchoicesandwillbetterprepareyoutoreviseyourinitialdecisionwhennecessary。
　　Iwouldencouragealleducatorstoconsiderthesefindingsbothwhileadministeringexamsandwhileformingtheirownbeliefsabouthowstudentslearnandtaketests。Likethestudentsthemselves，ourreflectivebeliefsoftendifferfromtheactualexperience。
　　Studentsbenefitfromasystemthatallowsthemtobuildmetacognitiveskill，andtheywillgenerallymakebetterdecisionsiftheyuseempiricallyvalidatedinformationabouttheirconfidenceratherthanafolkbelieforpopularmisconception。Itisalsorelativelysimpletodothisduringpaperbasedorelectronicexams，sothereislittlecost。
　　Educatorswould，perhapsmostimportantly，bewaryofgivingadvicebasedontheirsubjectivebeliefsor（almostcertainly）unreliablememories，andinsteadbeabletofosterausefulskillbasedonmemoryandmetacognitionresearch。